Risk analysis and sustainability of the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) resources in SA

Project Number:



SARDI Food Safety and Innovation

Principal Investigator:

Yongshun Xiao

Project Status:


FRDC Expenditure:




Final Report - 2000/123 - Risk analysis and sustainability of the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) resources in SA

Final Report
Author(s):Yongshun Xiao
Date Published:March 2008

Principal Investigator: Y. Xiao & J. Prescott

Key Words:


1. Undertake a careful review of appropriate models developed and used in other invertebrate fisheries, including those used in Tasmania and Western Australia.

2. Develop a spatial-, sex-, time- and age-dependent model (or equivalently a spatial-, sex-, time- and size-dependent model), taking advantage, where possible, of model components developed elsewhere.

3. Develop a simulation model based on the outputs from the model in (2).

4. Use the simulation model to evaluate various harvesting strategies to empower the fishing industry and managers to make better informed decisions and respond skilfully to critics.

5. Use the model to forecast catch and abundance for individual areas.

6. Use the model to answer the following questions: How much risk is associated with any particular TAC or level of effort? How much more can fishers gain in revenue terms under alternative harvesting strategies while demonstrating long term sustainability with a quantified risk? Which fishing regime produces a sustainable fishery, while, at the same time, maximises catch and revenue? How does the current harvesting strategy compare with to the optimal harvesting strategy? How much more biological information is gained or lost by adopting various harvesting strategies? What are the implications of lobsters' aggregating behaviour for the assessment of the stock?

7. To develop a modelling option that allows management to produce reports consistent with the ESD reporting framework developed by SCFA.