El-Nemo SE: risk assessment of impacts of climate change for key species in South Eastern Australia
2009-070
University of Tasmania (UTAS)
Gretta Pecl
Completed
$140,163.66
Environment
Climate change is expected to alter physical and chemical oceanographic conditions and processes around Australia, yet the influence this could have on the distributions of various marine species is still relatively unknown. The marine waters of South Eastern Australia are expected to be significantly affected by climate change, experiencing the greatest climate-driven changes in the southern hemisphere over the next century. The impacts and opportunities that will result from these changes will depend, in part, on how well the fisheries and aquaculture sectors and their managers respond to these challenges. A sound risk-based approach to informing both management arrangements and decisions by the sectors will be critical for optimizing outcomes. It is essential that the potential impacts of climate change on key resources are assessed and effectively communicated to support the development of policies that allow industry to minimize adverse effects by optimizing adaptation responses (e.g. by providing flexible management arrangements) and seizing opportunities as they arise (e.g. for species where productivity increases). This project has been identified as a clear and immediate need through the SEAP Plan (draft) and also establishes a platform of baseline information from which we can start to address several key priority areas identified in the Draft Marine National Adaptation Research Plan (NARP). Priorities identified in the draft NARP include 1/ Which farmed species in which locations are most likely to be impacted as a result of climate change?, and for fisheries 2/ Which fishery stocks, in which locations, are most likely to change as a result of climate change? What will those changes be (e.g., in distribution, productivity) and when are they likely to appear under alternative climate change scenarios? Clearly, comprehensive and synthesised information on the sensitivities and tolerances of key species are the first steps required to address these priorities.
1. Identify the life history stages, habitats and aquaculture systems of key species that may be impacted by climate change
2. Identify the physical and chemical parameters that may determine the potential impacts of climate change on key species
3. Conduct a preliminary risk assessment of each key species to the potential impacts of climate change
4. Highlight what additional information on the tolerances and sensitivities will be needed to develop bioclimatic envelope models for key species
Summary:
Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070
The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.
Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.
SPECIES INVESTIGATED:
Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi
AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi
Summary:
Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070
The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.
Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.
SPECIES INVESTIGATED:
Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi
AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi
Summary:
Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070
The oceans are the earth’s main buffer to climate change, absorbing up to 80% of the heat and 50% of the atmospheric carbon emitted. Changes in temperature, environmental flows, ocean pH, sea level, and wind regimes are all contributing to modifications in productivity, distribution and timing of life cycle events in marine species, affecting ecosystem processes and altering food webs. The south-eastern region of Australia has experienced significant oceanographic changes over recent decades and this has been reflected by changes in the associated ecosystems: range extensions have been documented in several dozen species, major distributional shifts have been recorded in barrens-forming sea urchins, bivalves and gastropods, and major declines in rock lobster recruitment have also been related to ocean warming and changing circulation patterns.
The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.
Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.
SPECIES INVESTIGATED:
Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi
AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi
Summary:
Please note that there are two parts to the final report for project 2009/070
The oceans are the earth’s main buffer to climate change, absorbing up to 80% of the heat and 50% of the atmospheric carbon emitted. Changes in temperature, environmental flows, ocean pH, sea level, and wind regimes are all contributing to modifications in productivity, distribution and timing of life cycle events in marine species, affecting ecosystem processes and altering food webs. The south-eastern region of Australia has experienced significant oceanographic changes over recent decades and this has been reflected by changes in the associated ecosystems: range extensions have been documented in several dozen species, major distributional shifts have been recorded in barrens-forming sea urchins, bivalves and gastropods, and major declines in rock lobster recruitment have also been related to ocean warming and changing circulation patterns.
The major goal of this project was to undertake a screening-level risk assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on key fishery species in the south east Australian region. Thorough literature reviews and species assessment profiles were completed for key species to underpin the ecological risk analyses. Physical drivers of climate change stressors on each fishery species were identified. Wild capture fishery and aquaculture species were ranked according to their need for further assessment of their vulnerability to climate change.
Changes in the distribution, abundance and species composition of our commercial fisheries resources as a function of changing climate is going to be unavoidable and our industries will need to adapt to minimise exposure to risks which, given constructive adaptive actions, could be avoided. It is imperative that industries and managers are proactive in positioning themselves to undertake a strategic and structured approach to adaptation planning and engage in subsequent actions to minimise losses and maximise opportunities arising from climate change. Successful adaptation planning is not just about implementing strategies to minimise vulnerabilities and potential losses, it is also concerned with ensuring adequate preparedness to maximise advantages offered by new opportunities. However, not all threats identified will be responsive to anticipatory actions and we need to focus on the threats posing the greatest future cost and that will be most responsive to anticipatory action.
SPECIES INVESTIGATED:
Abalone, blacklip and greenlip Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata;
Australian salmon Arripis trutta and A. truttaceus
Black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri
Blue grenadier Macruronus novaezelandiaei
Blue swimmer crab Portunus pelagicus
Commercial scallop Pecten fumatus
Eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus
Flatheads Platycephalida
Gummy shark Mustelus antarcticus
King George whiting Sillaginodes punctatus
School prawn Metapenaeus macleayi
Snapper Chrysophrys auratus
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis
Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir
Southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii
Spanner crab Ranina ranina
Striped marlin Kajikia audax
Western king prawn Penaeus latisulcatus
Yellowtail kingfish Serolia lalandi
AQUACULTURE SPECIES
Abalone, blacklip, greenlip and tiger (hydrid), Haliotis rubra & H. laevigata
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis
Pacific oyster Crossostrea gigas
Southern bluefin tuna Thunnus maccoyii
Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata
Yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi