Demand Conditions and Dynamics in the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery: Empirical Investigation
The FRDC HDR has identified the lack of information on markets and price formation in Australian fisheries as a major research gap. The need for such analyses has also been discussed within the AFMA Economics working group, as such information was seen as essential in supporting fisheries management.
This project is an attempt to reduce this research gap. In doing so, the information produced will be of benefit to fisheries managers, fishers and the broader community as we move our fisheries closer to maximising net economic returns.
The focus of this study is on the markets relevant to the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery (SESSF), which is the main supplier of fresh fish to the Sydney and Melbourne markets. To date, only very limited empirical research has been conducted for these fisheries in Australia [4-6], most of which is now fairly old and is unlikely to be valid for current market conditions. Since the early 2000s the seafood market in Australia has changed, for example, due to increasing seafood imports and increasing domestic aquaculture production. Hence, market dynamics for products supplied by domestic fisheries may have also altered.
This case study was identified by the FRDC HDR as of high importance due to the current challenges facing the fisher in terms of unfilled quotas. One potential contributing reason that quotas are not being taken is that to do so would result in lower prices; of potential benefit to consumers but not to producers. Instead, the lower catches may be supporting higher prices. The outcomes of this project can provide insights into the extent of to which the marker is contributing to quota undercatch.
The study will focus on the impact of changes in supply on the price received on the markets. While the potential response of fishers to these changes in price (including avoiding large catches) is also of relevance to fishery managers, this will require further bioeconomic modelling work that is beyond the scope of this study, but may be seen as a high priority for future research.
Final report
Data for the Melbourne market were limited following the closure of the central market in 2010. Despite this, the results of the cointegration analysis indicate that the Sydney and Melbourne markets were highly integrated over the period of the available data. That is, prices for a given species on each market tended to move together. Hence, the two markets can effectively be considered a single market, at least for the key Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery species examined. Differences in prices on the markets can still exist due to differences in transport costs, but price variations beyond these transportation cost differences are temporary.
On the Sydney market, prices of most species were found to be not cointegrated (i.e., not substitutes), but some cointegration was observed. In particular, Blue-eye Trevalla was cointegrated with several species suggesting this may be a market leader or at least a highly influential species in the market.
Imports were also found to be cointegrated with many of the species on the Sydney Fish Market, particularly imports of fresh fish. This indicates a strong substitution potential between imports and domestically caught fish, with increased import supply most likely having a negative impact on prices of Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery species.
From the results of the aggregated demand model, the increase in the quantity of imports has had a negative effect on the price of wild-caught species on the Sydney Fish Market over the last two decades, supporting the results of the cointegration analysis. Imports of fresh fish was found to have had a significant negative impact on the prices of species in the lower valued group in both the short and long term. While no short-term impact on high valued species was found, a small but significant negative impact was found in the long term. This suggests direct competition and potential for substitution between imports of fresh fish and the lower valued domestic fish species. In contrast, imports of frozen fish were found to complement lower valued species. That is, increased imports of frozen fish were related to increased prices for these lower valued species. No significant relationship between frozen fish and higher valued species was found.
The increase in salmon production was also found to have had a negative impact of prices of both groups (high and low valued) on the Sydney Fish Market, more so that imports.
At the species level, own-price flexibilities were generally found to be between -0.3 and -0.6, indicating that prices change less than proportionally with quantity landed (i.e., are relatively price inflexible). That is, a 10 per cent increase in quantity landed, for example, of each species would result in a 3 to 6 percent decrease in its own price. Cross-price flexibilities – the impact of landings of one species on the price of another – were also found to be small, mostly between 0 and -0.1.
A re-examination of underlying model assumptions and resulting abundance indices of the Fishery Independent Survey (FIS) in Australia’s SESSF
SESSF Monitoring and Assessment – Strategic Review
There is increased awareness of the need for ecosystem-based fisheries management, with increased public expectations for sustainable management of fished stocks. However, reduced catch levels and increasing costs have stimulated industry calls for reductions in management costs, or for more effective use of the existing cost-recovered funds. Budget limitations have already led to annual fishery independent surveys (FIS) carried out less frequently, reduced observer monitoring (ISMP) to fund other projects, alternation of FIS and ISMP from year to year, use of Crew Member Observers (CMOs) to collect on-board length frequencies, retaining species at lower tier assessments instead of Tier 1 assessments, ad-hoc implementation of more multiyear TACs combined with adhoc implementation of break-out rules, reduction of the frequency of Tier1 stock assessments, and the postponement of critical Tier 1 stock assessments. Whilst all of these approaches are feasible and practical responses, their combined influence on the effectiveness of the monitoring and assessment at achieving desired management objectives has not been tested or demonstrated.
Current budget restrictions on AFMA have resulted in a departure from scheduled monitoring and assessment work, with increasing ad-hoc decisions about which components of that work undertaken each year. There is growing concern by stakeholders that the present monitoring and assessment program is incapable of addressing these developments. SETFIA and other industry associations are particularly concerned that fishing concession levies funding current arrangements will become unaffordable.
Given AFMA's legislative objectives to ensure ecologically sustainable development, to maximise net economic returns and to ensure cost-effective fisheries management, AFMA has proposed this project to develop proposals for a structured and cost-effective research, monitoring and assessment program to respond to requirements and emerging issues in the SESSF over the next 5 years. It may be possible to extend this horizon should a fully quantitative project follow this proposal.
Final report
Developing improved methods for stock assessment in spatially complex fisheries using Blue-eye Trevalla as a case study
There is considerable scope to enhance spatially-based management arrangements for species with broad or disjunct distributions, or species that are targeted by different gears in different areas or habitats. For example, current SESSF management arrangements do not consider stock structure in Blue-eye Trevalla, although it ranges from WA to Queensland and beyond Australian waters, and preliminary analysis showed some evidence for separate stocks between the SESSF and ECDW seamounts. There is an immediate need to develop and incorporate new spatially-based arrangements into management of Blue-eye Trevalla in response to complex spatial patterns in the fishery that include a change of fishing methods through time, whale interactions increasing in some areas, re-location of effort into underutilized locations (e.g. ECDF seamounts), and the series of recent and planned area closures that include Commonwealth Marine Reserves (CMR) in the GAB, off the eastern seaboard and on the offshore Tasmantid Seamount Chain, and fishery closures being implemented by AFMA and NSW Fisheries to project Harrisson’s and Southern Dogfish. There is a more general need to assess options for managing separate stocks of other species – such as regionalising TAC’s – and to evaluate options against EBFM performance measures that include economic and environmental indicators.
Final report
Trial and validation of Respondent-Driven Sampling as a cost-effective method for obtaining representative catch, effort, social and economic data from recreational fisheries
Increased affordability and sophistication of fishing technologies (e.g. GPS, electric reels) have resulted in increased efficiency and diversification of the recreational fishing sector. Fishers are increasingly targeting some species of commercial and/or conservation importance (e.g. SBT, mako shark, striped marlin, blue eye trevalla), leading to inter-sector conflict. Therefore, reliable recreational catch, effort, social and economic data are required for stock assessment and equitable resource sharing.
Unfortunately, obtaining representative data from specialised or out-of-frame components of recreational fisheries (e.g. sport fisheries, non-licenced fishers) using traditional methods is expensive and often ineffective because these components of the fishery: 1) lack a complete sampling frame to recruit fishers to surveys, 2) are comprised of fishers who are too rare to intercept in the wider community, and 3) are spatially and/or temporally diffuse. Therefore, alternative cost-effective methods are required.
Epidemiologists routinely survey rare or 'hard-to-reach' populations (e.g. HIV carriers) by penetrating social networks using Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS). RDS works by eligible subjects receiving incentives for survey participation and recruiting other eligible peers, who then recruit other eligible peers, and so on. After weighting each subject's social network size and other known biases, RDS can generate a completely representative sample of subjects from a hard-to-reach population.
RDS was identified by leading recreational fishing survey design experts in FRDC project 2007/014 as having the potential to solve many of the problems researchers currently face in trying to obtain representative samples from recreational fisheries. RDS has not been used previously in fisheries science, but its potential application to recreational fisheries is detailed by Griffiths et al. (2010). The aim of this project is to fill a national and international need to evaluate and customise RDS for sampling hard-to-reach components of recreational fisheries, by using the specialised Tasmanian recreational set-line licence fishery as a case study.
Final report
The objective of FRDC project 2012/021, “Trial and validation of Respondent-Driven Sampling as a cost-effective method for obtaining representative catch, effort, social and economic data from recreational fisheries” was to trial and validate the chain referral sampling method, Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), for obtaining representative data from specialised ‘hard-to-reach’ components of recreational fisheries. This project aimed to test this new method by undertaking a RDS survey with a population of fishers who were part of a complete licence list frame. The characteristics of the sample (e.g. age, gender) from the RDS survey would then be compared to another survey collected via random stratified sampling drawn from the licence list frame. This would allow comparison of the results between methods to determine if the RDS survey can produce a representative sample of the population.
Telephone surveys have long been regarded as a cost-effective method for large-scale population. However, in recent years, a decline in landline registration, increasing exclusive use of landlines for internet connections, and changes in population demography has led to a decline in the representativeness of the landline sampling frame on the overall population. In addition, with a limited number of recreational fisheries requiring a licence—many of which also have various exemptions— a secondary list-sampling frame is not always available to researchers to select a representative sample of fishers for a survey. These factors contribute to a degradation of the ability of scientists to yield a representative sample from the population via direct telephone polling, and highlight a need to explore new methods for more effective sampling of recreational fisheries. A trial of the RDS method is needed as it may be one of the few methods that can cost-effectively attain reliable data from specialised fisheries that lack a complete licence list frame of participants. It may also be particularly useful in situations where the participants are too rare within the wider population to be sampled in sufficient numbers using traditional survey methods.
RDS is a peer-driven recruitment process initiated by a small number (4-6) of members, or ‘seeds’, from the target population who each complete a questionnaire. On completion, each person is given a small 'initial reward' and 2-3 uniquely coded coupons to pass to eligible peers. The person is instructed they will receive a 'secondary reward' if their peers recruit to the survey. When each peer is recruited and completes a questionnaire, they are also given two coupons to pass to other eligible peers. This chain-referral process continues and produces rapidly expanding recruitment chains until the sample reaches ‘equilibrium’, whereby the proportion of population characteristics (e.g. gender, age) no longer change with further sampling.
The Tasmanian government issues a number of specialised recreational fishing licences without exemptions, which provided an opportunity to trial RDS and assess its efficacy against the known population of licence holders. These include the Tasmanian recreational set-line and rock lobster fisheries. The set line fishery is specialised in terms of the species targeted and the gear used (mainly longline). The number of licence holders is around 4000. The Tasmanian recreational rock lobster fishery again has no licence exception but is larger with around 18,000 licences issued per year.
We used the RDS method to study three populations. First, we undertook a pilot survey of a staff population at the Ecosciences Precinct (ESP), Brisbane to optimise sampling and operational procedures and validate the mechanics of the RDS method. ESP housed 827 staff at the time of the survey representing CSIRO, four government departments, and three universities. This urban and socially cohesive population experienced a range of hardships during a forced re-location to ESP from various locations around Brisbane. As such, the pilot survey of their experiences during the relocation resulted in a high level of engagement in the process. The mechanics of the survey performed as planned, with ‘waves’ of respondents being recruited from an initial seeding of 7 individuals. In total, 394 coupons were issued and 197 interviews completed. All but 10 of the respondents originated from the one seed.
Subsequently, two field trials of RDS within the Tasmanian recreational set-line fishery and rock lobster fishery were conducted. As a precursor to these trials, a workshop with recreational fisheries representatives was undertaken to explore the logistical details associated with implementing an RDS survey. The workshop was attended by international RDS experts, fisheries scientists, statisticians, a fishery manager, and recreational fishing group representatives. One key recommendation from the workshop was to undertake focus group meetings with set-line fishers to seek feedback on specific aspects of the survey method (e.g., incentive amount and type), which were undertaken in Devonport and Hobart.
The survey of Tasmanian recreational set-line fishers was conducted between November 2014 and April 2015. We developed a survey tool and database “RDS-Recfish”, for implementing RDS surveys, managing coupons and incentives. A prototype of this tool was trialled at the focus group workshops and refined following feedback on the questionnaire and survey structure. RDS-Recfish was then used to implement the first RDS survey. Initially, total of six seeds were recruited to start the survey, based on their geographic location and fishing club membership status. However, long sequence chains of RDS recruits did not occur from these seeds. From 27 recruitment coupons that were circulated by the seeds, only three fishers were recruited. A follow-up survey indicated seeds had no issues distributing coupons to other fishers, however many noted ‘obvious scepticism’ when trying to explain the research objectives to potential recruits.
The second field trial of RDS involved the Tasmanian recreational rock lobster fishery. Based on the findings from our set-line study, we adapted our methods to increase the likelihood of developing long recruitment chains that expanded into the general population of fishers. This involved dramatically expanding the number of initial seeds to 41 fishers over multiple waves of recruitment, seeding across potential barriers to recruitment—namely geography and gear type—and undertaking personal briefings of seeds and a follow up survey to better understand psychological aspects of the recruitment process. While our follow up survey indicated that most seeds had passed on their coupons, only five eligible fishers were recruited from the 135 coupons distributed.
While there appeared to be no issue with distribution of the coupons by the seeds the following key mechanic of the method, which required the coupon recruited fisher to make a phone call on their own initiative back to the researcher, rarely occurred. A level of psychological inertia was not overcome by these fishers, as they were not sufficiency motivated to make this call. We think that in additional to the generous monetary reward offered, another strong non-monetary incentive may also have been required, such as was the case in the ESP study, to improve the survey response rate.
There has been widespread success of RDS in a range of highly connected hard-to-reach populations (e.g., illicit drug users) in densely populated urban settings. We think that in addition to fishers not be motivated by the solidarity of stigmatisation - they are after all participating in a legal and licenced activity with strong cultural roots – potentially their low frequency of social interactions may have been a further impediment to their motivation to make contact with the researcher. In other RDS research including our office block EPS study close, repeated close social interactions with seeds can provides ‘peer pressure’ or ‘group-mediated social control’ to encourage participation in the survey.
Another potential impediment was the choice of contact technology. In addition to declines in land-line use there has been a further recent shift towards text based communication by the general population. The survey was dependent on voice phone calls, and paper coupons. While other methods, such as SMS, could be used to distribute coupons codes, fishers still needed to ring a phone number and leave a voice message. An option to establish communication via various on-line text forms (i.e. social media) may have improved the response.
A further possibility for the failure, particularly of the set line case study, was scepticism among fishers that the use of research survey data will be used as a justification for implementing management measures to limit their fishing opportunities. Such negative attitudes towards research have the potential to spread through the social networks of fishers to inhibit RDS recruitment. However, in the rock lobster fisher study, there was strong support for the science aims of the work both by seeds and during the follow up survey.
Finally, we were not able to test the representativeness of the data as we could not get the mechanics of the RDS method to work for our two case study fisheries. However a simulation of the RDS methods suggested that differential recruitment by seeds of fishers can lead to substantial bias and this bias cannot be detected from the RDS sample alone.
Despite the comprehensive preparation and collective efforts of our team, international RDS experts, recreational fisheries survey design experts, fishery managers and recreational fishing advisory members, RDS did not function as anticipated in two distinct recreational fisheries trials. Through the field trials, the simple act of calling the project’s freecall telephone number appeared to present the greatest impediment to recruitment from the many fishers who accepted a coupon from their peers to participate in the surveys. Our method may not have also accounted for other specific psycho-social factors that created impediments to recruitment. Further work focusing on the motivations of fishers to participate in research surveys, their preferred communication technology, their psychological responses to incentive types, and the social inertia that needs to be overcome to recruit one’s peers, may guide researchers to continue to adapt interview methods for recreational fisheries research.
Without a highly motivated population of socially closely connected fishers, RDS does not appear to be cost-effective method for obtaining representative catch, effort, social and economic data from recreational fisheries.
Future trials of similar methods for surveying recreational fisheries may consider using other types of survey administration that do not require direct voice contact with staff (e.g. self-administered surveys online via social media) may result in more recruitment. However, such methods need careful consideration and testing prior to use since they may introduce a suite of poorly understood sampling biases that compromise the representativeness of the sample.
A repeat of previous economic surveys of the recreational rock lobster fishery, based on a representative sample of the licence frame, could provide an interesting assessment of high value placed on landing lobsters.
Supporting sustainable fishery development in the GAB with interpreted multi-scale seabed maps based on fishing industry knowledge and scientific survey data
The valuable offshore trawl (GABBTF) and non-trawl (GHATF) components of the SESSF fishery are expanding in the GAB, but there are no maps of this large area (~500 miles wide) at scales relevant to fishery use and management. Interpreted maps are needed to underpin sustainable development, particularly because they are relevant to developing area closures. These form a key part of AFMA’s strategic management planning for the fishery - including implementing the recommendations of recently completed Ecological Risk Assessments. The relevant scales when evaluating options for spatial management are: fishing grounds (areas with characteristic patterns of bottom types, fish communities and use), features (including submarine canyons and large rocky banks) and terrains - sediments, rocky bottom and broken bottom that make them up.
Maps alone will not usefully inform management decisions. There is also a need to interpret the structure and functions of their component parts, e.g. individual fishing grounds or certain habitat types. This enables stakeholders to understand their role for fishery production, their value to the fishery, and their natural values – including for threatened species and unique habitats. A wide range of data and knowledge can be collated from industry and scientific surveys. The proposed project will provide the mechanism needed to acquire, collate and map the information, then evaluate and summarise it for management purposes while preserving the confidential nature of industry data.
The project is based on a model used successfully in a previous study. The methodology – including data security measures - and infrastructure (spatial database, portable camera system) is largely in place. This project will build on lessons learned from the previous project (see Risk Analysis).
Final report
A novel method for obtaining age compositions from ancillary biological data and it’s potential for cost reductions in stock assessments
Age composition data provides the key information necessary to effectively manage fisheries. The proposal provides a mechanism where age composition data can be gained using length frequency data and age composition data from different years and sampling events, which has previously been impossible. The benefits will be a reduced need for production ageing, more timely age composition data and the ability to construct age composition data from historical length frequency data where no samples were collected for ageing.
Currently the Age-Length Key (ALK) is the most widely used numerical method for assessing the age composition in a large sample of length-frequency data. However, the application of ageing data in this approach is restricted to the original sample of length distribution (ageing data from the same year the length-frequency sample is taken). Due to this severe limitation, the ageing information must be regenerated for each new data sample. Using the Fredholm First Kind equations, previous years ageing data can be used to generate the underlying age composition from the current length-frequency data. Furthermore, the ageing data may be added to include many years, improving the robustness of the statistic which can then be used to decompose the underlying age distribution from the given length frequency.
As noted by a number of referees, the major problem with the current methods is variable recruitment. We have demonstrated that the technique is tolerant to the most extreme changes in age frequency (see accompanying text). These extreme changes in age frequency are greater than any changes that could occur naturally through recruitment. The issue of variable growth may affect the efficacy of the approach, but to our knowledge, has only been observed in two species. These are black bream and blue grenadier. It is proposed that the technique be demonstrated on blue grenadier in the first year.
The cost of collecting ageing data is high, with approximately $150,000 spent each year on ageing samples from commercially important species within the South East Fishery. Due to the cost, the number of species aged is not optimal and species are prioritised on a scientific and social-political basis. The cost-benefit of applying this approach is intuitively a large reduction in cost of ageing to industry and more timely information on the age structure of the population. A formal cost benefit analyses will need to be conducted on a species by species basis. This is a function of different cost structures for ageing different species, different numbers of samples that need to aged for each species. These different numbers of estimates that need to be made for each species is primarily due to longevity and stock structuring.
The age-structured data obtained from this project will benefit the South East Trawl Fishery, the Great Australian Bight Trawl Fishery and the Gillnet, Hook and Trap Fishery which are supported by The Integrated Scientific Monitoring Program (ISMP) and various other stock assessment programs that rely on age-structured data.
Further, age composition data will be able to be reconstructed historically from species where samples were not aged but length-frequency data were collected. This will enable age-structured population analysis where the lack of ageing data prevented these stock assessment techniques from being previously used. The net effect of this approach is to greatly improve the knowledge base from which species are managed. One of key advantages of this approach is, if successful, will at the very least compliment current methods and provide temporal and spatial coverage of age composition information which is currently cost prohibitive and only collected for a few, high value species.
The implication of a technique that can provide age-composition data free from the restriction of those associated with the ALK is more cost-effective resource management.
The proposal has been developed in two parts, the first component is a 'Proof of Concept Study' where the use of the Fredholm First Kind Equations to provide age compositions from length frequency data will be further examined. If this is not assessed as successful in a workshop environment, the project will be terminated at the end of the first year. The second and third year will examine a broad range of species.