Assessment of national-scale tracking of commercially important fish species
Demand Conditions and Dynamics in the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery: Empirical Investigation
The FRDC HDR has identified the lack of information on markets and price formation in Australian fisheries as a major research gap. The need for such analyses has also been discussed within the AFMA Economics working group, as such information was seen as essential in supporting fisheries management.
This project is an attempt to reduce this research gap. In doing so, the information produced will be of benefit to fisheries managers, fishers and the broader community as we move our fisheries closer to maximising net economic returns.
The focus of this study is on the markets relevant to the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery (SESSF), which is the main supplier of fresh fish to the Sydney and Melbourne markets. To date, only very limited empirical research has been conducted for these fisheries in Australia [4-6], most of which is now fairly old and is unlikely to be valid for current market conditions. Since the early 2000s the seafood market in Australia has changed, for example, due to increasing seafood imports and increasing domestic aquaculture production. Hence, market dynamics for products supplied by domestic fisheries may have also altered.
This case study was identified by the FRDC HDR as of high importance due to the current challenges facing the fisher in terms of unfilled quotas. One potential contributing reason that quotas are not being taken is that to do so would result in lower prices; of potential benefit to consumers but not to producers. Instead, the lower catches may be supporting higher prices. The outcomes of this project can provide insights into the extent of to which the marker is contributing to quota undercatch.
The study will focus on the impact of changes in supply on the price received on the markets. While the potential response of fishers to these changes in price (including avoiding large catches) is also of relevance to fishery managers, this will require further bioeconomic modelling work that is beyond the scope of this study, but may be seen as a high priority for future research.
Final report
Data for the Melbourne market were limited following the closure of the central market in 2010. Despite this, the results of the cointegration analysis indicate that the Sydney and Melbourne markets were highly integrated over the period of the available data. That is, prices for a given species on each market tended to move together. Hence, the two markets can effectively be considered a single market, at least for the key Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery species examined. Differences in prices on the markets can still exist due to differences in transport costs, but price variations beyond these transportation cost differences are temporary.
On the Sydney market, prices of most species were found to be not cointegrated (i.e., not substitutes), but some cointegration was observed. In particular, Blue-eye Trevalla was cointegrated with several species suggesting this may be a market leader or at least a highly influential species in the market.
Imports were also found to be cointegrated with many of the species on the Sydney Fish Market, particularly imports of fresh fish. This indicates a strong substitution potential between imports and domestically caught fish, with increased import supply most likely having a negative impact on prices of Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery species.
From the results of the aggregated demand model, the increase in the quantity of imports has had a negative effect on the price of wild-caught species on the Sydney Fish Market over the last two decades, supporting the results of the cointegration analysis. Imports of fresh fish was found to have had a significant negative impact on the prices of species in the lower valued group in both the short and long term. While no short-term impact on high valued species was found, a small but significant negative impact was found in the long term. This suggests direct competition and potential for substitution between imports of fresh fish and the lower valued domestic fish species. In contrast, imports of frozen fish were found to complement lower valued species. That is, increased imports of frozen fish were related to increased prices for these lower valued species. No significant relationship between frozen fish and higher valued species was found.
The increase in salmon production was also found to have had a negative impact of prices of both groups (high and low valued) on the Sydney Fish Market, more so that imports.
At the species level, own-price flexibilities were generally found to be between -0.3 and -0.6, indicating that prices change less than proportionally with quantity landed (i.e., are relatively price inflexible). That is, a 10 per cent increase in quantity landed, for example, of each species would result in a 3 to 6 percent decrease in its own price. Cross-price flexibilities – the impact of landings of one species on the price of another – were also found to be small, mostly between 0 and -0.1.
SESSF Monitoring and Assessment – Strategic Review
There is increased awareness of the need for ecosystem-based fisheries management, with increased public expectations for sustainable management of fished stocks. However, reduced catch levels and increasing costs have stimulated industry calls for reductions in management costs, or for more effective use of the existing cost-recovered funds. Budget limitations have already led to annual fishery independent surveys (FIS) carried out less frequently, reduced observer monitoring (ISMP) to fund other projects, alternation of FIS and ISMP from year to year, use of Crew Member Observers (CMOs) to collect on-board length frequencies, retaining species at lower tier assessments instead of Tier 1 assessments, ad-hoc implementation of more multiyear TACs combined with adhoc implementation of break-out rules, reduction of the frequency of Tier1 stock assessments, and the postponement of critical Tier 1 stock assessments. Whilst all of these approaches are feasible and practical responses, their combined influence on the effectiveness of the monitoring and assessment at achieving desired management objectives has not been tested or demonstrated.
Current budget restrictions on AFMA have resulted in a departure from scheduled monitoring and assessment work, with increasing ad-hoc decisions about which components of that work undertaken each year. There is growing concern by stakeholders that the present monitoring and assessment program is incapable of addressing these developments. SETFIA and other industry associations are particularly concerned that fishing concession levies funding current arrangements will become unaffordable.
Given AFMA's legislative objectives to ensure ecologically sustainable development, to maximise net economic returns and to ensure cost-effective fisheries management, AFMA has proposed this project to develop proposals for a structured and cost-effective research, monitoring and assessment program to respond to requirements and emerging issues in the SESSF over the next 5 years. It may be possible to extend this horizon should a fully quantitative project follow this proposal.
Final report
Estimating the abundance of School Shark in Australia using close kin genetic methods
The school shark stock is subject to a recovery plan so commercial targeting cannot resume until adequate recovery is demonstrated. The consequent avoidance of school shark means CPUE is no longer a valid index of relative abundance. The existing stock assessment is effectively being used to project the population forward in time (from 1997), given known catches, and is thus predicting the rate and level of recovery of the stock. No information is currently available to compare the predicted recovery rate with the actual rate. Anecdotal reports from the fishing industry suggest that recovery is more rapid than predicted, suggesting lost revenue from current low bycatch TACs.
Avoidance of school shark is reducing the economic efficiency of the gummy shark industry. Economic losses are most keenly felt in South Australia where sea-lion and dolphin protection has closed large areas of traditional fishing grounds. The 20% school:gummy ratio imposes additional, effective, closures of areas of high school shark abundance. The need to protect school shark has also lead to a conservative response from SharkRAG when stock assessments have suggested increases in the gummy shark TAC (SharkRAG 2013).
School shark are highly mobile and the current stock assessment model relies heavily on a model of movement that hasn’t been tested against data. The true movements and underlying stock structure of school sharks are key uncertainties for understanding and effectively managing this stock, complicating the interpretation of any CPUE based abundance index. This project is likely to better understanding of stock structure and movement, and may facilitate use of the existing Pittwater pup index, which stretches back to the 1940s.
This research proposal is in response to the updated ComFRAB call for research on 23 May 2013, which asked for proposals relating to "Develop better measures for School Shark abundance".
Final report
We found 65 half sibling pairs (HSPs), 3 parent-offspring pairs (POPs) and 34 full sibling pairs (FSPs); sufficient for close kin modelling. Our model estimates a School Shark stock in the region of 50,000 mature individuals during 2000. Although the coefficient of variation (CV) for our abundance estimate ranges from 0.23 to 0.28 over 2000 to 2011 (most precise in 2002-2003, at 0.23) the standard error on the trend in mature abundance is large relative to the trend itself so that although the median trend is slightly upwards, a downward trend cannot be ruled out.
Future projections assuming varying levels of future close kin sampling for up to four years showed that standard errors on trend and abundance should greatly reduce. SharkRAG have recognised that CKMR provides a viable alternative to conventional stock assessment for School Shark and have recommended that CKMR continue to be used as a monitoring tool for School Shark and we scoped such continuing work.We developed two, very simple, models that provided similar abundance estimates to those of our more sophisticated close kin model, giving us confidence that the close kin model correctly interpreted the close kin data. Our estimate of abundance is three to four times lower than that of the most recent stock assessment model, when that was projected forwards assuming similar levels of catch to those that have occurred (Thomson, 2012). Our model was not able to sustain the catches that occurred during the 1990s, even under optimal survival conditions for juvenile School Shark. This suggests that the School Shark population consists of more than one reproductively isolated stock, and that the population that we measured is likely to be a remnant of what was present in the 1990s.
It is possible that environmental degradation of School Shark nursery areas (DEWR, 2008) is the explanation for our finding. As there has been little recovery of those areas, School Shark might not have the capability to recover to their previous stock size. In this case, management reference points that rely on the assumption that stocks will recover to their pristine abundance in the absence of fishing, are not useful for School Shark. Conventional stock assessment models give more precise estimates of relative, than of absolute, abundance but CKMR gives reliable estimates of absolute abundance. This provides managers the opportunity to manage School Shark according to a more relevant quantity than abundance relative to a no longer attainable pristine state last seen in the 1920s.
Our work has advanced close kin methodology through the refinement of software developed for quality control of genetic sequencing data, and for kin finding. Our work represents the first application of CKMR to a commercially exploited shark population.
Trials of longlines to mitigate captures of Australian sea lion and other high risk species by SESSF shark operators targeting Gummy Shark in waters off SA
Development of robust methods to estimate acceptable levels of incidental catches of different commercial and byproduct species
Incidental catches of species whilst fishing includes the take of both quota and non-quota species. Generally these species are relatively data poor but the Harvest Strategy Policy still requires a determination of whether these species are at risk of overfishing.
In addition, bycatch TACs are set for seriously depleted species to allow for those catches taken when legitimately targeting associated species. The objective is to provide a mechanism that would prevent useless discarding while minimizing fishing mortality. However, current regulations do not prevent targeting the bycatch-only species given sufficient quota. This has been observed with School Sharks. It is currently unknown if taking the bycatch TACs for the species concerned will permit the required stock recovery. As a minimum, methods are needed for determining whether an observed level of bycatch and discarding, in any given fishery, is sustainable; these methods need to be able to be applied irrespective of the different life history characteristics of the wide array of bycatch species found across Commonwealth fisheries.
There is a need to explore the conditions under which severely depleted species may fail to recover. If it is the case that for some species even small incidental catches are sufficient to maintain a species in a depleted state then different management may be required. Management options include 1) status quo, 2) spatial and/or seasonal closures, 3) increased cooperation from Industry, 4) changing regulations about bycatch –only species, and 5) reducing the quotas for those species with which the depleted species make up a significant bycatch. The issue of incidental catches is present in all Australian fisheries; there is a need for general solutions that can be applied to a wide range of cases that minimize the impact on the fishery while minimizing the impact of the fishery on the bycatch-only species.
Final report
Mitigating seal interactions in the SRLF and gillnet sector SESSF in South Australia
South Australia contains 80% of the endemic Australian sea lion (ASL) population, where substantial fishing effort in the gillnet sector SESSF (~20,000 km net-lifts/year) and SA RLF (~1.5 million pot-lifts/year) increase the risk of fatal interactions.
A recent risk assessment (FRDC 2005/077) identified that subpopulations of ASL are highly vulnerable to even low-level bycatch from fisheries, with >40% of subpopulations at risk of extinction from as little as 1-2 additional female deaths/year over a 20-25 year period. The risk assessment identified that the current high proportion of depleted subpopulations of the species may be entirely due to sustained low-level bycatch by commercial fisheries.
ASL are listed as a threatened species under the Commonwealth EPBC Act, and a recovery plan has identified bycatch from bottom-set gillnet and rock lobster fisheries as the most significant anthropogenic contributor to the species’ lack of recovery. As such the development of measures to mitigate interactions with sea lions forms the most pressing ESD issues for these fisheries.
ESD assessments of both the gillnet sector of the SESSF and SARLF fisheries have identified interactions with seals as a significant issue. These assessments make at least seven recommendations to address protected species interactions (including seals), but little if any progress has been made to address these to date.
In order to have southern rock lobster taken from South Australian waters placed on the list of exempt native specimens for export under Part 13 and 13(A) of the EPBC Act, there is an imperative to address these ESD recommendations, as failure to do so may jeopardise current and future export exemptions.