The eastern and south eastern Australian marine waters have been identified as being the most vulnerable geographic area to both climate change impacts and overall exposure in Australia. These changes are expected to have significant implications in the region.
Information on physical changes expected in south-eastern Australia are currently available only through Global Climate Models that provide coarse spatial scales of 1-2 degrees (latitude & longitude). They currently provide almost no information at the scale of coastal upwelling, eddies and fronts which are important factors driving oceanic productivity. These models currently predict global changes in a range of physical variables both in the atmosphere and in the ocean for the 20th (hindcast mode) and 21st (forecast mode) centuries and are currently used in IPCC projections.
Further refined modelling of physical drivers in this region is required to understand drivers at scales relevant to fisheries and aquaculture for driving productivity, distribution and abundance of species. While a number of national (Bluelink) and regional finer-resolution ocean models exist for the SE region (Baird et al model, NSW; Huon Estuary model, Tas; SAROM, SA), in this project outputs from two (Bluelink and SAROM) will be used to inform predictions on biomass, productivity and distributions of key fishery species.