The existing research predicts that climate change will have both positive and negative impacts on reproduction, recruitment and distribution of biomass of Australia’s commercially important marine species. Many fishery stakeholders acknowledge that the issue of climate change should be a high priority issue for fisheries management. Current research highlights the potentially significant impacts of climate change on fisheries and fisheries management, but to date strategies for fisheries management to address climate change have been lacking. The current ability of fisheries management to cope with these changes is unknown and therefore must be assessed to test its resilience, ability to adapt and the changes that may be required. AFMA is a prime candidate for leading this assessment since it has substantive responsibility for those areas of the Australian fishing zone that are expected to be hot-spots for climate change effects, such as SE Australia, one of the fastest warming areas in the ocean. In addition, the issues of climate change are canvassed in draft government policies for fisheries and this project could form part of the response to those policy needs.
To-date no jurisdiction in Australia has assessed the resilience of its management system to these anticipated impacts and it is likely to break some new ground in what may need to be done for management systems to effectively adapt to climate change and the options that may be available. Engagement with and participation from key fishery stakeholders is essential for this project to be a success and to assist in any subsequent fisheries management change processes. Overall, this project has the potential to benefit the marine ecosystem and fisheries stakeholders with a vested interest in climate change adaptation, to increase the benefits and reduce the risks. While the production end of the supply chain is often the focus, this project will also consider the supply chain risks, following approaches developed in recent FRDC projects (Hobday et al. 2015; Fleming et al. 2014; Lim-Camacho et al. 2015; Plaganyi et al. 2014; van Putten et al. 2015)
Report
(i) FRDC Final Report (Appendices 3-5 are provided as standalone documents);
(ii) Adaptation Handbook (designed to help fisheries managers, operators – and anyone else helping to support fisheries – step through a risk assessment and identify feasible adaptation options);
(iii) Educational Excel Tool (to support the Handbook); and
(iv) Fact Sheet.
To assist the adaptation process, this project developed a process documented in an Adaptation Handbook (and associated excel tool). This process steps interested stakeholders, industry and managers through a structured process to rate risks and identify adaptation options – both to do with fishery operations and management actions. The process and handbook were specifically developed with AFMA needs and Commonwealth fisheries in mind, but can be applied to fisheries in other jurisdictions. Users could adjust them as needed for the context of their fishery, adding/removing ecosystem factors, industry operations and management actions based on relevance to their fishery.
The project activities – the initial ecological sensitivity analysis undertaken for all Commonwealth fisheries, the assessment of potential risks to AFMA’s capacity to deliver on policy and legislated objectives and the initial illustrative implementations of the risk assessment and adaptation process – have highlighted some general adaptation options that are likely to be of value in many Australian fisheries.
Key findings are:
• All AFMA fisheries contain valuable species sensitive to climate change, with some of the most valuable fisheries amongst those fisheries showing the greatest sensitivity
• All fisheries, but especially short lived and invertebrate fisheries are likely to become far more variable into the future, that is, when, where and how much fish is caught
• Bycatch and TEPS are likely to be highly sensitive to climate change effects, meaning there will be a need to understand how that interacts with any fishing effects
• A shifting ecosystem state over multiple years (or decades) has the potential to go unnoticed and eventually undermine the sustainability of Australian fisheries and the businesses and livelihoods that depend upon them
• Cross jurisdictional management coordination will be required to improve adaptation to climate change, maximising flexibility needed for adaptive capacity and minimising the risks arising from cumulative effects
• Monitoring and forecast capacity will become key to understanding system change that supports evidence-based decision making, fishery sustainability and business profitability
• Australia needs to find a way of making monitoring and forecasting possible and supported long term to maintain our position and reputation as having well managed fisheries (Australia’s monitoring capacity is currently insufficient given the degree to which climate change will likely reshape Australian ecosystems).