Title:

NCCP: Development of hydrological, ecological and epidemiological modelling to inform a CyHV3 release strategy for the biocontrol of carp in the Murray Darling Basin

Project Number:

2016-170

Organisation:

CSIRO

Principal Investigator:

Peter Durr

Project Status:

Completed

FRDC Expenditure:

$1,057,000.00

Program(s):

Environment

Need

The complexity of developing an optimized "release strategy" requires a modelling approach, as undertaking field trials to develop this strategy is not an option - due to the impossibility of containing the virus to the trial site. Whilst it might be possible to develop a theoretical model for release, it is much preferable that this be based on the available and relevant data that exists for each catchment. To achieve this we will develop a series of inter-related hydrological, ecological, demographic and epidemiological models, and integrate these using a Big Data approach, where the underlying data is stored in databases and accessed using work-flow tools such as CSIRO's Workspace (https://research.csiro.au/workspace/)

Objectives

1. Develop a series of inter-related hydrological, ecological and epidemiological models that will enable the development of a strategy to inform the strategic staged release of CyHV-3 so as to deliver maximum impact whilst minimizing the major anticipated adverse ecological consequence, i.e. large scale anoxic river events.

2. Develop Big Data management and visualization systems for delivering the large amount of data that will arise from the modelling exercises in an interactive and informative manner.

Development of hydrological, ecological and epidemiological modelling to inform a CyHV3 release strategy for the biocontrol of carp in the Murray Darling Basin: Part A. Integrated ecological and epidemiological modelling

Final Report
ISBN:978-1-925983-18-02019
ISSN:
Author(s):Peter A. Durr, Stephen Davis, Klaus Joehnk, Kerryne Graham, Jess Hopf, Arathi Arakala, Ken A. McColl, Stephen Taylor, Yun Chen, Ashmita Sengupta, Linda Merrin, Danial Stratford, Santosh Aryal, Rieks D. van Klinken, Paul Brown, Dean Gilligan
Date Published:March 2020
This report details work undertaken by CSIRO and RMIT University for the National Carp Control Plan (NCCP). The present study develops a series of interrelated hydrological, ecological, and epidemiological models that enable the development of a strategy to inform feasibility assessment and operational planning for the potential release of CyHV-3 with the aims of maximising carp reduction and minimising adverse ecological consequences. 
The complexity of developing an optimized "release strategy" requires a modelling approach, as undertaking field trials to develop this strategy is not an option - due to the impossibility of containing the virus to the trial site. Whilst it might be possible to develop a theoretical model for release, it is much preferable that this be based on the available and relevant data that exists for each catchment. To achieve this, the project team developed a series of inter-related hydrological, ecological, demographic and epidemiological models, and integrate these using a Big Data approach, where the underlying data is stored in databases and accessed using work-flow tools such as CSIRO's Workspace (https://research.csiro.au/workspace/)
Due to the complexity and scale of the entire modelling project, reporting is in four sections, corresponding to the hydrological reconstruction modelling, the habitat suitability modelling, the carp demographic modelling and the epidemiological modelling. Some of the Sections (1 and 2 in particular) are very voluminous, and to make it more accessible, a substantial portion of the technical detail of the data processing and model development has been subsumed into the Appendices. Keywords: biocontrol, common carp, CyHV-3, hydrology, Murray-Darling Basin, modelling