Project number: 2017-104
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $80,632.00
Principal Investigator: Susan J. Nichols
Organisation: University of Canberra
Project start/end date: 28 Feb 2018 - 31 Jul 2018
Contact:
FRDC

Need

Release of CyHV-3 virus will be predicated on a sound understanding of the likely impacts of reductions in carp numbers both in terms of immediate effects and longer term ecological responses. Predicting post-control outcomes is particularly important where there may be permanent or transient impacts that may be negatively perceived. Recognising and quantifying uncertainty around these predictions is a critical component of providing advice on release and communication to managers and the general public.

The essential needs are;
a) A clear conceptualization of the role of carp across ecosystems to enable an expert elicitation of the likely impacts of carp control using CyHV-3.
b) To understand how ecosystems may change under scenarios of carp control by CyHV-3
c) To be able to communicate these predicted changed with defined levels of confidence to the public.

The project will identify particular ecosystem attributes expected to change in response to carp control, for example native fish species diversity and abundance, water quality, algal composition and biomass. These metrics will be selected based on current monitoring programs, and conceptualized into simple diagrams which summarise the likely impacts of carp and carp control. This preliminary understanding will underpin exploration of particular control scenarios in terms of evidence available for making predictions of effects on ecosystem attributes. These predictions will be informed by the published literature and expert elicitation from NCCP management and expert panel members.

For all scenarios, the project needs to provide an assessment of the evidence underpinning the predictions of ecosystem response, including:
• causal relationships between carp abundance and ecosystem attributes, and the role of other variables (e.g. land-use, geographic region)
• identification of knowledge gaps

Objectives
1. Develop a conceptual framework and identify ecosystem attributes expected to change in response to carp control
2. Define attribute metrics and quantify attribute independence
3. Assess the confidence of the scientific evidence underpinning the predicted outcomes
4. Provide outputs that are clearly communicable to the general public and other

Objectives

1. Develop a conceptual framework and identify ecosystem attributes expected to change in response to carp control over the medium to long-term.
2. Define attribute metrics and quantify attribute independence
3. Assess the confidence of the scientific opinion /evidence underpinning the predicted outcomes
4. Provide outputs that are clearly communicable to the general public and other components of the NCCP

Report

Author: Susan Nichols
Report • 2019-08-14 • 5.06 MB
2017-104 Final report_ECOLOGICAL OUTCOMES OF MAJOR CARP REDUCTIONS.pdf

Summary

Experts predict that most ecosystems would be improved if carp numbers were reduced by at least 70 per cent.

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