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Demand Conditions and Dynamics in the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery: Empirical Investigation

Project number: 2018-017
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $146,216.00
Principal Investigator: Sean Pascoe
Organisation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Hobart
Project start/end date: 4 Nov 2018 - 29 Jun 2020
Contact:
FRDC

Need

The FRDC HDR has identified the lack of information on markets and price formation in Australian fisheries as a major research gap. The need for such analyses has also been discussed within the AFMA Economics working group, as such information was seen as essential in supporting fisheries management.

This project is an attempt to reduce this research gap. In doing so, the information produced will be of benefit to fisheries managers, fishers and the broader community as we move our fisheries closer to maximising net economic returns.

The focus of this study is on the markets relevant to the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery (SESSF), which is the main supplier of fresh fish to the Sydney and Melbourne markets. To date, only very limited empirical research has been conducted for these fisheries in Australia [4-6], most of which is now fairly old and is unlikely to be valid for current market conditions. Since the early 2000s the seafood market in Australia has changed, for example, due to increasing seafood imports and increasing domestic aquaculture production. Hence, market dynamics for products supplied by domestic fisheries may have also altered.

This case study was identified by the FRDC HDR as of high importance due to the current challenges facing the fisher in terms of unfilled quotas. One potential contributing reason that quotas are not being taken is that to do so would result in lower prices; of potential benefit to consumers but not to producers. Instead, the lower catches may be supporting higher prices. The outcomes of this project can provide insights into the extent of to which the marker is contributing to quota undercatch.

The study will focus on the impact of changes in supply on the price received on the markets. While the potential response of fishers to these changes in price (including avoiding large catches) is also of relevance to fishery managers, this will require further bioeconomic modelling work that is beyond the scope of this study, but may be seen as a high priority for future research.

Objectives

1. Estimate the degree of integration between the different species and between the markets for fresh fish in Sydney and Melbourne
and
2. Estimate the short term and long term effects of changes in quantity supplied of key species in the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery (SESSF) on the price received on the Sydney and Melbourne fish markets

Final report

ISBN: 978-1-925994-20-9
Authors: Sean Pascoe Peggy Schrobback Eriko Hoshino and Robert Curtotti
Final Report • 2021-02-01 • 5.37 MB
2018-017-DLD.pdf

Summary

This final report, a collaboration between economists from CSIRO, CQU and ABARES, is the first detailed analysis of the interrelationship between fish prices on the Sydney and Melbourne fish markets. In addition, the study derived empirical estimates of the own and cross-price flexibilities for the main species on the Sydney Fish Market.
Data for the Melbourne market were limited following the closure of the central market in 2010. Despite this, the results of the cointegration analysis indicate that the Sydney and Melbourne markets were highly integrated over the period of the available data. That is, prices for a given species on each market tended to move together. Hence, the two markets can effectively be considered a single market, at least for the key Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery species examined. Differences in prices on the markets can still exist due to differences in transport costs, but price variations beyond these transportation cost differences are temporary.
On the Sydney market, prices of most species were found to be not cointegrated (i.e., not substitutes), but some cointegration was observed. In particular, Blue-eye Trevalla was cointegrated with several species suggesting this may be a market leader or at least a highly influential species in the market. 
Imports were also found to be cointegrated with many of the species on the Sydney Fish Market, particularly imports of fresh fish. This indicates a strong substitution potential between imports and domestically caught fish, with increased import supply most likely having a negative impact on prices of Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery species.
From the results of the aggregated demand model, the increase in the quantity of imports has had a negative effect on the price of wild-caught species on the Sydney Fish Market over the last two decades, supporting the results of the cointegration analysis. Imports of fresh fish was found to have had a significant negative impact on the prices of species in the lower valued group in both the short and long term. While no short-term impact on high valued species was found, a small but significant negative impact was found in the long term. This suggests direct competition and potential for substitution between imports of fresh fish and the lower valued domestic fish species. In contrast, imports of frozen fish were found to complement lower valued species. That is, increased imports of frozen fish were related to increased prices for these lower valued species. No significant relationship between frozen fish and higher valued species was found. 
The increase in salmon production was also found to have had a negative impact of prices of both groups (high and low valued) on the Sydney Fish Market, more so that imports. 
At the species level, own-price flexibilities were generally found to be between -0.3 and -0.6, indicating that prices change less than proportionally with quantity landed (i.e., are relatively price inflexible). That is, a 10 per cent increase in quantity landed, for example, of each species would result in a 3 to 6 percent decrease in its own price. Cross-price flexibilities – the impact of landings of one species on the price of another – were also found to be small, mostly between 0 and -0.1. 

Project products

Brochure • 2021-02-01 • 2.89 MB
2018-017 - How demand analysis can help improve fisheries and aquaculture performance - SUMMARY BROCHURE.pdf

Summary

As it is currently applied in Australia, fisheries management is mainly focused on ensuring the sustainability of the resource while maximising the output from the fishery. This is largely achieved through setting total allowable catch (TAC) or equivalent effort restrictions to limit the quantity of landings from the fishery. In jurisdictions where economic outcomes are also important, more conservative catch and effort limits are generally set in recognition of the additional cost of harvesting the resource as stock size declines.
Conclusions: Changes in the quantity produced at the level of the industry can have an impact on the prices that producers receive. These price changes may extend beyond just one species in question, impacting also on potential substitute species. 
The critical measures of this change are the own and cross-price flexibilities. Own-price flexibilities define the percentage change in the price of a species due to a 1 per cent change in landings or production, while cross-price flexibilities represent the percentage change in a different species due to the production change of a given species.
Individually, own and cross-price flexibilities are generally small. In the case of key fish species, they are mostly between -0.5 and zero, indicating a less than proportional change in price with landings or production. However, this means that changes in revenues from, say, a TAC increase will result in a less than proportional change in revenue, and with cross-price impacts also, increasing TACs may result in negligible revenue improvements. Fisheries managers in particular need to be aware of these changes, as increasing a TAC does not necessarily mean better returns to the fishery. Conversely, higher returns may be earned at lower levels of catch due to the combination of higher prices and less cost in catching the fish.
While lower prices may be bad for producers, lower fish prices provide benefits to consumers. Hence, what is optimal for the fishery or aquaculture industry may not be optimal for the community overall. Including consumer benefits into economic analyses underlying TAC and other decisions that impact production is an area of further consideration by fisheries and aquaculture managers.

Identification of factors which impact on the profitability of individual GABTS operators and the fishery as a whole

Project number: 2016-214
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $10,454.00
Principal Investigator: Ian Knuckey
Organisation: The Trustee for Knuckey Family Trust
Project start/end date: 31 Oct 2016 - 8 Apr 2018
Contact:
FRDC

Need

Commercial in confidence. To know more about this project please contact FRDC.

Objectives

Commercial in confidence

SESSF Monitoring and Assessment – Strategic Review

Project number: 2014-203
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $266,838.76
Principal Investigator: Ian Knuckey
Organisation: Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA)
Project start/end date: 17 Jul 2014 - 30 Jun 2016
Contact:
FRDC

Need

There is increased awareness of the need for ecosystem-based fisheries management, with increased public expectations for sustainable management of fished stocks. However, reduced catch levels and increasing costs have stimulated industry calls for reductions in management costs, or for more effective use of the existing cost-recovered funds. Budget limitations have already led to annual fishery independent surveys (FIS) carried out less frequently, reduced observer monitoring (ISMP) to fund other projects, alternation of FIS and ISMP from year to year, use of Crew Member Observers (CMOs) to collect on-board length frequencies, retaining species at lower tier assessments instead of Tier 1 assessments, ad-hoc implementation of more multiyear TACs combined with adhoc implementation of break-out rules, reduction of the frequency of Tier1 stock assessments, and the postponement of critical Tier 1 stock assessments. Whilst all of these approaches are feasible and practical responses, their combined influence on the effectiveness of the monitoring and assessment at achieving desired management objectives has not been tested or demonstrated.

Current budget restrictions on AFMA have resulted in a departure from scheduled monitoring and assessment work, with increasing ad-hoc decisions about which components of that work undertaken each year. There is growing concern by stakeholders that the present monitoring and assessment program is incapable of addressing these developments. SETFIA and other industry associations are particularly concerned that fishing concession levies funding current arrangements will become unaffordable.

Given AFMA's legislative objectives to ensure ecologically sustainable development, to maximise net economic returns and to ensure cost-effective fisheries management, AFMA has proposed this project to develop proposals for a structured and cost-effective research, monitoring and assessment program to respond to requirements and emerging issues in the SESSF over the next 5 years. It may be possible to extend this horizon should a fully quantitative project follow this proposal.

Objectives

1. In consultation with the project Reference Group, SESSFRAG and SEMAC, identify priorities, key concerns, perceived shortcomings and opportunities for improvement in monitoring and assessment arrangements for the SESSF fishery.
2. Review the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of current monitoring, assessment and management arrangements for the SESSF, and the extent to which they meet the requirements of fisheries policies, including implications of recommendations arising from the reviews of the Commonwealth Fisheries: Legislation, Policy and Management, Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy and Guidelines and Commonwealth Policy on Fisheries Bycatch.
3. Conduct a qualitative assessment and initiate design of the suite of rationalised monitoring and assessment options currently being trialled against reference points implied under the revised fishery policies for target, byproduct, bycatch and TEP species groups.
4. Review recent relevant regional and international fishery developments to identify future options for improvement in the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of monitoring, assessment and management arrangements for the SESSF.
5. Provide a report using the results of the reviews to support recommendations for revised, implementable and cost-effective monitoring, assessment and management arrangements for the SESSF. These recommendations will seek to optimise the outcomes for the fishery in terms of monitoring and assessment efficiency, while meeting the objectives of the Fisheries Management Act and government policy. The report may recommend further quantitative ‘next step’ analyses as part of the implementation process.

Final report

ISBN: 978-0-9954122-4-8
Authors: Ian Knuckey Andrew Penney Malcolm Haddon Sean Pascoe Simon Boag Matthew Koopman Daniel Corrie George Day Nick Rayns and Trevor Hutton
Final Report • 2019-01-17 • 9.84 MB
2014-203-DLD.pdf

Summary

The Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery (SESSF) is a multi-species, multi-gear, multijurisdictional Commonwealth fishery. It is a fishery of substantial economic and social importance to Australia, as a key provider of high quality fish products to Australian markets. More than 600 species are caught or interacted with, including bycatch (discards) and byproduct (minor commercial) species. Commercially-important species targeted in the SESSF include 34 species which are managed under Total Allowable Catches (TACs). TACs are periodically adjusted by the management agency, the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA), in response to biomass estimates, or proxies thereof, derived from monitoring and assessment activities. These include the collection of data (principally catch and effort) from fisher records (log books and catch disposal records).  Additional management requirements reflecting the Commonwealth Harvest Strategy Policy 2007, the Commonwealth Policy on Fisheries Bycatch 2000, and the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act 1999 require additional information from monitoring and assessment activity. It is now a requirement to record any impacts on bycatch; byproduct; and threatened, endangered and protected species (e.g. seals, seabirds, dolphins). Most monitoring and assessment costs are borne by the Industry (those licencees holding statutory fishing rights to participate in the SESSF). Recently, expanding monitoring and assessment activity has coincided with decreasing commercial returns (primarily as a result of falling prices for some commercial species and the failure to fully catch TACs). It is important that future monitoring and assessment activity applicable to the SESSF is cost-effective for all sectors. This review evaluates existing monitoring and assessment arrangements and provides recommendations on future monitoring and assessment to cost-effectively meet management and legislative requirements.

FRDC-DCCEE: adapting to the effects of climate change on Australia’s deep marine reserves

Project number: 2010-510
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $89,326.72
Principal Investigator: Ronald E. Thresher
Organisation: CSIRO Land and Water Canberra
Project start/end date: 31 Dec 2010 - 29 Jun 2012
Contact:
FRDC

Need

Australia’s highly endemic deep-water coral communities are under a current and accelerating threat of being squeezed out of existence, between seamount summits typically deeper than 1000 m. and carbonate levels that are falling and pushing the saturation horizon towards the surface. This horizon, below which the reef-forming corals apparently cannot grow (Guinotte et al., Front. Ecol. Env. Sci., 2006), has already shoaled by 50-130 m in the last 200 years due to industrial CO2 emissions (Thresher, et al., ms). Under-saturated water is likely already encroaching on the reef, which recent surveys found is just below the current saturation horizon (Thresher, et al., ms), and not above it, as expected. There is real risk that the reef is already stressed and may even be dying. The problem will only get worse. Under a “business-as-usual” scenario, even the tops of the seamounts will be under-saturated in the next 50-100 years. With nowhere to go, Australia’s cold-water reefs could “simply disappear” (Poloczanka, el al., Ann. Rev. Oceanog. Mar. Biol., 2007).
There are presently no adaptation strategies for dealing with this threat, nor even any research on strategies, even though it challenges the key objectives of the SE Commonwealth Marine Reserve Network, and the survival of deep-sea reefs globally. This project, developed in consultation with DEWHA, will evaluate the magnitude of the threat to Australia’s key reef-forming species, and identify and test management options for adapting to it. It addresses NARP priorities for determining ecosystem vulnerability and the feasibility of intervention and adaptation strategies.

Objectives

1. 1. To develop practical options for DEWHA to manage the impacts of climate change on the South-east Commonwealth Marine Reserve
2. 2. To develop a generic model that can be applied to forecasting the impacts of climate change on other deep sea biota

Final report

Effects of Trawling Subprogram: assessment of bycatch in the Great Australian Bight Trawl Fishery

Project number: 2000-169
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $97,770.00
Principal Investigator: Ian Knuckey
Organisation: Agriculture Victoria
Project start/end date: 16 Oct 2000 - 27 Nov 2002
Contact:
FRDC

Need

The GAB Management Advisory Committee (GABMAC) and the GAB Industry Association (GABIA) have raised concerns that they do not have the data necessary to assess the GABTF's compliance with ESD principles. If the core objectives of The National Policy on Fisheries Bycatch are to be implemented for the GABTF, there is an essential need for baseline data on bycatch to be gathered. Once this information is available, they will be able to determine if bycatch levels are acceptable or if there are particular times or regions in which the bycatch levels in the GABTF are deemed too high. When a comprehensive understanding of the nature of the bycatch issue in the GABTF is established, it will be then possible to investigate the most appropriate ways of reducing the levels of bycatch.

Objectives

1. Design an onboard sampling strategy which will provide a representative sample of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the total catch composition (retained and discarded) in the GABTF.
2. Undertake onboard sampling of commercial vessels and collect basic biological data (size, growth, age, maturity etc.) on the important species caught in the GABTF.
3. Based on the data collected during this project, provide Industry, the GABMAC and stock assessment scientists with information on GABTF species biology and bycatch composition appropriate to their specific needs.
4. Investigate the potential for Environment Australia to fund data collection from commercial vessels working within the GAB Marine Park which can be used in conjunction with or comparison to the CSIRO research cruise. (To be negotiated)

Final report

Development and application of a combined industry/scientific acoustic survey of Orange Roughy in the Eastern Zone

Project number: 1999-111
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $263,136.09
Principal Investigator: Rudy Kloser
Organisation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Hobart
Project start/end date: 30 Mar 1999 - 14 Aug 2002
Contact:
FRDC

Need

The primary need is to remove the uncertainty surrounding the status of the orange roughy stock by performing a combined CSIRO high precision research vessel and industry surveys of the Eastern zone during the 1999 spawning season. Following reanalysis of available information, most recent assessment indicates reduction of catches by 50% or even closure might be necessarry to meet AFMA's performance criteria for this fishery. However, recent catch and effort data (that is not used in the assessment), recent ageing data, and fisher's observations together suggest that the assessment may no longer accurately represent the population dynamics of the roughy. If these observations can be substantiated by an accepted biomass assessment (requring industry and CSIRO cooperation to get coverage plus precision), the potential savings to the industry are 1000-2000 t quota at say $4/kilo = 4-8 million per year.

There is a second need, to assess the ability of industry sounders to monitor the state of the resource. Industry monitoring of the stock could prove less costly than high precision scientific surveys. However a number of questions remain unanswered regarding industry vessel acoustics precision and sensitivity. Clearly industry-based surveys need to be carried out with calibrated sounders and to conduct biological sampling of fish marks with fin-mesh liners in the codends. However further questions remain regarding the precision that can be obtained from vessel-mounted systems that are susceptible to sea state, vessel noise and stability. To what extent then do industry sounders have the ability to map schools and relative biomass over a given season?

To test the power of the industry sounders requires a controlled experiment. This can be achieved by conducting acoustic surveys simultaneously with the common 28 kHz industry sounders and the scientific 38 kHz vessel-mounted and towed systems. This was attempted in 1996 in an opportunistic manner. However, a logger borrowed from the industry and set up on the Southern Surveyor's 28kHz echo sounder soon failed, so no useful data were collected. A more rigorous attempt to incorporate industry acoustics is required.

Objectives

1. To assess the biomass of orange roughy based on acoustic surveys on the Eastern Zone fishing grounds during the spawning period using industry vessel acoustics over an extended period and the CSIRO acoustic package during the anticipated peak spawning period.
2. To assess how industry acoustics may be best used in the long term management of the resource.
3. To compare the sensitivity and precision of acoustic surveys using scientific vessel-mounted and towed-body acoustics and industry vessel-mounted acoustics.
4. To further develop the acoustic method by improving the multi-frequency technique for species identification.

Final report

Stock structure of Australian populations of orange roughy using microsatellite analyses

Project number: 1997-118
Project Status:
Completed
Budget expenditure: $32,100.00
Principal Investigator: Ross Crozier
Organisation: La Trobe University Melbourne Campus
Project start/end date: 22 Jun 1997 - 26 Jun 2002
Contact:
FRDC

Need

Despite the past studies, the question of the stock structure of Australian orange roughy remains unresolved. Broadly, the evidence supports the concept of somewhat localised stocks although with some inter-stock migration - it is really the extent of the migration that remains unknown.

Current management plans are largely based on the premise that southern Tasmanian fish are from a distinct stock from St Helens Hill fish, yet evidence in favour or opposing this proposition is weak.

We propose here an analysis of the stock structure of Australian orange roughy based on the examination of DNA microsatellites. DNA microsatellites will enable a more powerful analysis of genetic stock structure than has hitherto been possible. The study will focus on the relationships of fish from eastern Australia (New South Wales, St Helens Hill, southern Tasmania) but will also examine samples from the Tasman Sea (in particular Lord Howe Rise), New Zealand, and, as a presumably reproductively isolated population, the North Atlantic.

Objectives

1. To develop DNA microsatellite genetic markers for orange roughy
2. To use these markers to delineate stocks of orange roughy from Australian waters
3. To use these markers to compare Australian samples with New Zealand samples.
4. To use these markers to compare North Atlantic samples with Australasian samples

Final report

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