One of the major research priorities of QFIRAC, REEFMAC, QFS, GBRMPA, and other fisheries' stakeholders of the GBR concerns the need to develop innovative approaches for determining the sustainability of the fisheries for the exploited reef fish species, particularly the major target species of the GBR Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery, common coral trout and red throat emperor. This need has become even more pronounced with the recent release of the management plan for the fishery, which is largely dependent upon an Individual Transferable catch Quota (ITQ) system and the impending GBRMPA Representative Areas Program (RAP). A model involving complex effort dynamics associated with an extensive system of "no-take" areas and a significant recreational harvest (e.g., unlike the SE Trawl Fishery) that provides a framework for setting appropriate Total Allowable Catches (TACs) and evaluating their impacts has yet to be developed.

This proposal, therefore, arose in response to major concerns for the sustainability of the GBR Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery. It addresses directly QFIRAC's key R&D priorities in sustainability assessments by developing innovative assessment methodologies, sustainability indicators for target species in commercial fisheries, and using a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) approach. The "standard" approach to providing management advice for fisheries managed using ITQs involves, for each target species, fitting a population dynamics model to data collected for large geographic areas and calculating catch limits according to pre-specific decision rules (such as F0.1). However, this approach is likely to fail to achieve the management objectives for the GBR Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery because it ignores spatial heterogeneity in population structure and the multi-species and multi-sector nature of the fishery. Also, the data typically required to apply these methods is not available for the GBR Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery. In addition, little is known about the bioeconomic impacts and sophisticated effort dynamics associated with an ITQ managed multi-species, multi-sector fishery such as the GBR Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery.

Consequently, we propose to extend the MSE framework developed as part of the CRC Reef Effects of Line Fishing (ELF) Project and other related FRDC funded projects (1997-124, 1998-131, 2001-020). Results from this project will inform stakeholders and decision makers about the bioeconomic trade-offs associated with a variety of alternative rules for setting TACs. This is exactly the type of information required as the basis for the selection of monitoring strategies and decision rules. This project, therefore, will provide a management tool by which appropriate TACs can be evaluated given alternate harvest strategies related to effort displacement caused by the RAP and the significant recreational harvest.

Despite the indicators of improvements in fish stock status for SESSF species, the fishery as a whole is failing to catch the TACs of many quota species. Moreover, catch rates for many quota species are continuing to decline despite the historically low levels of fishing effort. The fishery is not in an economic position where it can afford to operate below potential - this under catch equates to a considerable lost opportunity in both the financial value and the volume of fish available for the consumer. Net economic returns for the CTS have recently fallen to $1.4 million in 2013–14, the lowest level since the buyback. NER in the GHaT has been negative since 2008–09. Recent economc analyses (Pascoe pers comm) have revealed that if all vessels could catch the full recommended quota, revenues of the CTS would more than double, while the GHaT revenues would increase by around 24%. For the CTS, average vessel profits are likely to increase by between $200k and $500k, with an average increase of around $380k.

So, what is the cause of the current situation in the SESSF?

There are a variety of different reasons given for the SESSF's TAC undercatch, depending on who you talk to. Anecdotally, it has variously been attributed to reduction in fleet fishing capacity, effort reduction, legislative barriers, spatial closures, changed behaviour of operators, market factors, quota ownership and trading, cost of production, changes in catch per unit of effort, climate change and its impact on oceanographic conditions and potential range shifts of species. It is also quite likely that it is a combination of a number of the above factors.

What can be done?

With such a wide range of potential reasons, it is difficult to determine what further work is required to potentially address these issues in the SESSF. This project centres on development of background papers on each of the issues that will be presented at a workshop designed as the first step in clarifying stakeholder views on the underlying reasons and how they might be resolved in the future.

The Australian Government's directive and AFMA's response, indicate there is an urgent need to further reduce bycatch in trawl catches in the SESSF. The economic ramifications could be considerable if industry are forced to retain smaller sized quota species. It is unlikey the price obtained for the smaller fish would adequately compensate the costs in retaining it.

Anecdotally, it appears the Network TN net has been able to reduce bycatch and has received strong endorsement from a range of fishers who are currently using the net (Appendix 1). Most have noted a substantial reduction in their bycatch especially in smaller fish. However to add credence in convincing other fishers of the advantages of this net there needs to be a qualified scientific study and sea trials conducted, to test whether catches towing with the NetworkTN net are siginificantly different from catches towed with a the current nets used by industry.

The WRLC needs generally-accepted methods for setting the annual quota that is robust to many of the differences that exist throughout industry but underpins within an acceptable harvest range, resource sustainability. The approach to be adopted needs to take into account MEY analyses, changing price relationships in the market, known risks facing the rock lobster industry, future catch and biomass projections and limits on harvest rates. Uncertainty towards moving to a larger quota can be accommodated by adopting an iterative approach to quota setting built around better industry understanding of the market and other relevant factors. Ideally an annual quota setting process needs to be underpinned by sustainable stock conditions and take into account information derived from ongoing monitoring of market conditions and industry trends. This would enable risk factors to be taken into account balancing the competing requirements of optimising price, preventing oversupply and excessive price investment instability.
The failure of Industry to reach consensus on an agreed methods for future quota setting could result in other parties setting the agenda.

Preferably, as most of the financial risks fall within industry, the industry has a primary role in annual setting of quotas with a transparent accountable decision framework within an appropriate governance, reporting and dispute resolution framework (if necessary) that is supported by government and industry.