It is unknown whether the current apparent failure of the stocks to recover in the NP Tiger fishery is related to limited management options, serial depletion of stocks or to the use of the now somewhat discredited MSY and EMSY management targets (see, for example, Larkin, 1977 and summaries in Pitcher & Hart, 1982).

In two recently completed FRDC projects (FRDC 95/014 and 98/109), a preliminary attempt at stock-based assessments was undertaken. These show that some stocks are much more depleted than the single-stock model would suggest. There is a need to clarify which areas are most affected and why these are performing so poorly. There is also a need to develop a multi-stock operating model to open a new direction for modelling in the NPF. This technically complex model would have the potential to benefit the management of benthic crustacean species worldwide. (It should be noted that no operating model, particularly not a spatially explicit one, has been developed for any prawn fisheries in Australia.)

In species, such as prawns, whose dynamics are dominated by yearly recruitment variation, the MSY may well give a false expectation of stability. Management targets that relate to present conditions rather than to equilibrium conditions (e.g. a target fishing mortality rate) may better serve intrinsically variable fisheries, such as prawns. However, reference points developed worldwide have concentrated on output controlled management systems. Given AFMA’s requirement to satisfy its ESD objective, there is therefore a need to consider uncertainty explicitly and to identify performance indicators and harvest strategies that are as robust as possible to incorrect assumptions and estimation errors deriving from limited data. Most importantly, these should be developed in the context of spatially explicit stock assessment models and an input controlled management system.

An international review of the NPF tiger prawn assessment agreed with the conclusions of the 2001 assessment that tiger prawn stock levels were critically low, especially for brown tiger prawns. The 2002 assessment further concluded that brown tiger prawn levels were too low and also emphasized the critical need for an independent monitoring program given the confounding and complexities of the catch rate data used as the sole index of abundance in the NPF assessments. The 2003 assessment suggests that brown tiger prawn stocks are recovering but, given the high level of uncertainty in the assessment, this recovery needs to be independently tested.

The survey data used to determine the initial design for this project (see Background) was more than a decade old and did not cover the full study area. Since the first survey, changes have been made to the survey design to improve the accuracy of the abundance estimates obtained from the surveys. This design needs to be further developed and tested. Work has also begun on developing methods for incorporating the results of the surveys into stock assessments, but more research is required to overcome several technical difficulties encountered.

In this proposal, the CSIRO salaries associated with testing the survey design and with developing new methods of incorporating the results into stock assessments are seen as research. We are therefore requesting about $47,000 from FRDC’s MOU funds. For this reason, CSIRO is also supporting the project to the scale of about $86,000. The remainder of the project, some $520,000, will be underwritten by the industry as agreed in NORMAC, June 2003. The industry and NORMAC have also re-affirmed the long-term need for regular industry-funded monitoring surveys based on the output of this project.

There is a need to provide an updated design for the NPF that would work in the long-term to provide indices of abundance for key species and enhance a difficult-to-use commercial catch rate series. Furthermore, this design needs to address target, byproduct and possibly some effects-of-trawling issues to make the best use of the surveys.

Australia’s major export market is Japan, a country in which food safety and quality are issues receiving much publicity. It is clear that Japanese consumers and, therefore, the buyers of Australian prawns will demand increasingly higher standards and assurances that quality standards are and will be maintained. The same arguments also apply to Europe where food quality and safety are seen as priority items in market access. The Australian industry must meet these demands or lose market share to competing suppliers or other products and/or suffer price reductions. Measures to ensure product integrity and safety must be implemented at the beginning of the supply chain - in this context, on board trawlers and in processing establishments - and must be seen by customers to be consistent, which requires proper training of crews and an audit system to provide assurance.

The domestic market for sea caught prawns, while less valuable, is equal in tonnage, with half the total catch (14,500 tonnes) sold on the local market. Competition from imported cooked farmed prawns and domestic farmed prawns is intense. Moreover, a large percentage of the local prawns are cooked on board boat. This is a ‘high risk’ process in food safety terms and all boats will be required to implement a food safety plan under proposed national regulations (Australia New Zealand Food Authority Proposals P145 & P160).

Further proposed changes to the Food Standards Code impact on the use of sulphur dioxide in prawns to prevent black spot. Ensuring all prawns are packed with a low residual SO2 content will be critical to avoid additional labelling.

A total quality management system for the prawn industry which is third party auditable and which links vessels and processing factories under a prawn mark will satisfy the needs of all sectors. There is a window of opportunity for the prawn industry to set the benchmark for prawn quality world wide.