“Futures of Seafood” is an 18th month multi-disciplinary study co-designed with industry and government. It will draw from existing data, complementary work underway or concluded, and importantly will involve a suite our outputs that can be used by a variety of stakeholders in formats that are fit for purpose.
The study will provide a contemporary description on the state of play of Australia’s seafood system, the supply chain, markets and its reach into communities. It will identify and report on trends, insights, forecasts and cumulative impacts that are impacting (positive and negative) the industry. It will include the first in-depth spatial and descriptive profile of the seafood industry by sector and jurisdiction through spatial mapping and productivity reporting since Marine Matters in 2003. Beyond seafood, it will also identify, describe and map other ocean uses (new, emerging and transitioning), including assumptions about current growth plans / policies / rights completed / taken up, looking towards 2040.
Drawing from information collated, the study will include scenario modelling to model and scrutinise the cumulative impacts of these trends and produce associated impact reporting against productivity and sustainability (social, economic, environmental and governance) metrics for a series of ten scenarios.
It will synthesise the study findings, as well as curate across other studies underway or completed, to develop a series of industry-specific assets (reports, tools, frameworks and systems) that aim to improve knowledge and support ongoing participation in the ocean estate policy conversation. This includes supporting priority contemporary frameworks to support transitions to future states and de-risking industry/sectors.
‘Futures of Seafood’ will support a shared understanding of the potential pathways and opportunities that lie ahead for Australia’s seafood stakeholders during this time of rapid change and transformation. It will furthermore provide a foundation for industry, Government and policy makers to make better decisions, navigate changes, and ensure industry and stakeholders are well-equipped to adapt and hopefully flourish in a dynamic environment.
This study and its intended outputs are consistent with and seeks to promote action against local, national, and global strategic initiatives, including those of the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, the Biodiversity Framework within the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Paris Declaration, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and associated Forward Faster Initiative.
WORK PACKAGE SUMMARY
In short, this is a novel study that describes, maps and models the spatial, economic and social impacts of Government targets and decisions, provides evidence-based insights and charts a course for Australia’s futures of seafood alongside other ocean uses for the coming 10-15 years.
It will be delivered through a series of four work packages. These are founded on an enduring data collation platform, undertaken by a series of expert commissions and overseen and supported by a strong and inclusive governance framework.
Work Package 1: State of Play
• Identify data system to support mapping and describing the current state of the industries/sectors – i.e. locations, GVP, employment, production, jurisdiction input/output.
• Identify social and economic values i.e. contribution to regional communities, nutrition + value of supply chain.
• Deliver a contemporary description on the building blocks and state of play of Australia's ocean food system, its supply chain and markets alongside the other uses of the ocean estate.
• Investigate and report the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry. i.e. Nutritional security; spatial squeeze; working in a changing climate i.e. resilience, adaptation, emergency response; Industry transitions i.e. decarbonisation; Jurisdiction i.e. policy/strategy, production v consumption; Workforce + training; Nature based solutions & investment, sustainable food systems i.e. ESG and sustainability
Work Package 2: Future Estate
• Map and overlay impacts of new and emerging transitioning industries in the ocean estate.
• Identify and describe the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts affecting the seafood industry.
• Map/measure/describe the implications of trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts of these industries and impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry.
• Describe other uses of the ocean estate.
Work Package 3: Scenario Modelling
• Design and develop tool to test future state scenarios for commercial, recreational and indigenous fishing.
• Undertake a series of impact scenario examples: i.e. spatial squeeze/crowded ocean, a changing climate, a regulatory reset, sector case studies and cumulative pressures.
• Use the scenarios to deliver impact reporting on productivity, nutrition and sustainability metrics to include: spatial mapping, heat maps, regulatory options, socio-economic attributes, community sentiment, nutrition, consumer and market impacts and opportunities.
Work Package 4: Synthesis
• Synthesis of research from WPs into a complete report and communications assets.
• Develop a Futures of Seafood Roadmap to navigate the likely impacts of the futures scenarios.
Governance Framework
• This collaboration will bring together leaders from industry sectors and government portfolios of agriculture, energy and environment.
• A strong and inclusive governance model is proposed to capture the breadth of stakeholders and ensure oversight of the study, strategic relevance and timely input from data and information contributors.
• Oversight Committee
• Industry + Community Advisory Committee
• Government Advisory Committee
• WP Technical Teams + Data Management & Communications Teams
• Terms of Reference for each committee with be established.
Project Management
• This will be supported by a mature project administration system, drawing from the Blue Economy project management system, a governance model and also an independent project evaluator to undertake assurance and integrity of program logic and models.
South Australia’s Marine Scalefish Fishery (MSF) is currently undergoing a strategic review with the principal aim of restructuring the fishery in order to ensure its long-term sustainability and economic viability. The heterogeneous mixture of participants, fishing devices, licence conditions and regulations associated with this fishery makes the tasks of administering and managing it extremely challenging. These complexities intertwined within a highly dynamic fleet that is capable of shifting fishing effort amongst species and regions often alters the emphasis of its overarching management. Industry and Government are working collaboratively to address the inherent complexities of the fishery through firstly developing a mechanism to rationalise the fleet, then reforming its overall structure, and ultimately refining its future management. In order to optimise this structural reform, it is necessary to disentangle and understand the fleet dynamics of this extremely complex fishery. This project aims to explore the implications of strategic management options (e.g. regionalisation, licensing, ITQ’s and ITE’s) on the future structure and viability of the MSF, from resource sustainability, economic and social perspectives.
This study was undertaken by the South Australia Research and Development Institute (SARDI) in collaboration with PIRSA Fisheries and Aquaculture, BDO EconSearch, the Marine Fishers Association (MFA), Fishwell Consulting and University of Canberra. This project guided the reform of South Australia’s commercial Marine Scalefish Fishery (MSF) by providing scientific advice and analyses to underpin its implementation. The MSF is a multi-sector, multi-gear and multi-species fishery, making any management reform a complex and difficult process. Both the sustainability of key stocks and commercial fishery’s economic performance have been deteriorating over a 20-year period; significantly influenced by fishery overcapitalisation. Simply put, there were too many fishers and not enough fish to support a vibrant and sustainable commercial fishery. This was addressed through the three ‘pillars’ of the reform: regionalisation, unitisation and rationalisation. These pillars were reflected in the reform with: 1) the creation of four new zones of management; 2) implementation of individual transferable quotas (ITQs) for appropriate ‘Tier 1’ stocks; and 3) rationalisation of the commercial MSF fleet by removing one third of licences through a voluntary licence surrender program (VLSP). These pillars were supported by research on the biological, economic and social carrying capacity of the fishery. The reform was implemented on 1 July 2021 resulting in a fishery that has regional management with appropriate output controls and a reduced fleet size.
Commercial fisheries and aquaculture activities with insufficient levels of social support can negatively affect industry member well-being and contribute to restricted resource access. More & appropriate engagement is needed to improve stakeholder and community trust & support, both with those affected by industry activity, and with those who affect industry activity (i.e. decision-makers and influencers).
This project addresses the need to ensure that the range of engagement activities and strategies undertaken by organisations and operators within fisheries and aquaculture are effective at:
- building relationships and trustworthiness;
- understanding concerns and needs arising from industry activity; and
- influencing preferences and decisions.
Limited evaluation has been undertaken regarding the effectiveness of engagement strategies and activities in meeting predefined goals. Similarly, limited opportunities exist to transfer knowledge between industry organisations of successful and future engagement practice; or to support improved return on investment of engagement strategies.
The NSW Fishing Industry has a need to improve relationships and trustworthiness with key stakeholders, and to achieve specific outcomes for PFA members, which include; improve social license by industry taking the lead on its own imagery, and an increase in the consumption and variety of NSW seafood.
In addition, there is limited feedback on whether communication strategies about to embark on will be effective at achieving the PFA’s desired outcomes, and there is information to help develop long term engagement strategies and direct limited resources to the most effective activities.
Therefore, there is a need to select a range of community engagement strategies and activities, and evaluate these against predefined goals. Engagement successes need to be extended to other industry organisations,
and if appropriate, decision support materials to be developed to extend knowledge adoption of the findings and materials.
