“Futures of Seafood” is an 18th month multi-disciplinary study co-designed with industry and government. It will draw from existing data, complementary work underway or concluded, and importantly will involve a suite our outputs that can be used by a variety of stakeholders in formats that are fit for purpose.

The study will provide a contemporary description on the state of play of Australia’s seafood system, the supply chain, markets and its reach into communities. It will identify and report on trends, insights, forecasts and cumulative impacts that are impacting (positive and negative) the industry. It will include the first in-depth spatial and descriptive profile of the seafood industry by sector and jurisdiction through spatial mapping and productivity reporting since Marine Matters in 2003. Beyond seafood, it will also identify, describe and map other ocean uses (new, emerging and transitioning), including assumptions about current growth plans / policies / rights completed / taken up, looking towards 2040.

Drawing from information collated, the study will include scenario modelling to model and scrutinise the cumulative impacts of these trends and produce associated impact reporting against productivity and sustainability (social, economic, environmental and governance) metrics for a series of ten scenarios.

It will synthesise the study findings, as well as curate across other studies underway or completed, to develop a series of industry-specific assets (reports, tools, frameworks and systems) that aim to improve knowledge and support ongoing participation in the ocean estate policy conversation. This includes supporting priority contemporary frameworks to support transitions to future states and de-risking industry/sectors.

‘Futures of Seafood’ will support a shared understanding of the potential pathways and opportunities that lie ahead for Australia’s seafood stakeholders during this time of rapid change and transformation. It will furthermore provide a foundation for industry, Government and policy makers to make better decisions, navigate changes, and ensure industry and stakeholders are well-equipped to adapt and hopefully flourish in a dynamic environment.

This study and its intended outputs are consistent with and seeks to promote action against local, national, and global strategic initiatives, including those of the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, the Biodiversity Framework within the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Paris Declaration, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and associated Forward Faster Initiative.

WORK PACKAGE SUMMARY

In short, this is a novel study that describes, maps and models the spatial, economic and social impacts of Government targets and decisions, provides evidence-based insights and charts a course for Australia’s futures of seafood alongside other ocean uses for the coming 10-15 years.

It will be delivered through a series of four work packages. These are founded on an enduring data collation platform, undertaken by a series of expert commissions and overseen and supported by a strong and inclusive governance framework.

Work Package 1: State of Play
• Identify data system to support mapping and describing the current state of the industries/sectors – i.e. locations, GVP, employment, production, jurisdiction input/output.
• Identify social and economic values i.e. contribution to regional communities, nutrition + value of supply chain.
• Deliver a contemporary description on the building blocks and state of play of Australia's ocean food system, its supply chain and markets alongside the other uses of the ocean estate.
• Investigate and report the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry. i.e. Nutritional security; spatial squeeze; working in a changing climate i.e. resilience, adaptation, emergency response; Industry transitions i.e. decarbonisation; Jurisdiction i.e. policy/strategy, production v consumption; Workforce + training; Nature based solutions & investment, sustainable food systems i.e. ESG and sustainability

Work Package 2: Future Estate
• Map and overlay impacts of new and emerging transitioning industries in the ocean estate.
• Identify and describe the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts affecting the seafood industry.
• Map/measure/describe the implications of trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts of these industries and impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry.
• Describe other uses of the ocean estate.

Work Package 3: Scenario Modelling
• Design and develop tool to test future state scenarios for commercial, recreational and indigenous fishing.
• Undertake a series of impact scenario examples: i.e. spatial squeeze/crowded ocean, a changing climate, a regulatory reset, sector case studies and cumulative pressures.
• Use the scenarios to deliver impact reporting on productivity, nutrition and sustainability metrics to include: spatial mapping, heat maps, regulatory options, socio-economic attributes, community sentiment, nutrition, consumer and market impacts and opportunities.

Work Package 4: Synthesis
• Synthesis of research from WPs into a complete report and communications assets.
• Develop a Futures of Seafood Roadmap to navigate the likely impacts of the futures scenarios.

Governance Framework
• This collaboration will bring together leaders from industry sectors and government portfolios of agriculture, energy and environment.
• A strong and inclusive governance model is proposed to capture the breadth of stakeholders and ensure oversight of the study, strategic relevance and timely input from data and information contributors.
• Oversight Committee
• Industry + Community Advisory Committee
• Government Advisory Committee
• WP Technical Teams + Data Management & Communications Teams
• Terms of Reference for each committee with be established.

Project Management
• This will be supported by a mature project administration system, drawing from the Blue Economy project management system, a governance model and also an independent project evaluator to undertake assurance and integrity of program logic and models.

This project seeks to position the NT seafood industry to have a clear understanding of suitable and cost effective, valued systems and processes for adoption. It is the critical first step required to aid a shift in the behaviour and culture from a government driven data collection process for legislative purposes, to a process that is trusted and valued by industry to deliver data insights beyond regulatory requirements. As a result, it will help position the NT wild harvest and aquaculture sectors with securing access, investment and development opportunities.

Current negotiations for access to Aboriginal-owned tidal waters have reached a critical point. A gap exists in understanding what level of industry adjustment might be required to ensure Indigenous investment in the industry is not unnecessarily impacted. Better understanding the full value of the NT seafood industry to the NT community could assist with all strategic decisions related to Blue Mud Bay negotiations, infrastructure investments – and help support investment in the industry going forward.

Without a plan to enhance the visibility of the wider socio-economic value and benefits of our industry, we will continue to face increasing pressure on our social licence to operate – which has the potential to impact all aspects of the local industry, including access, industry structure and increased fees. It will also limit our ability to identify the best opportunities for future growth and sustainability.

Further, there is limited availability of current financial and economic information for our individual NT wild harvest fisheries and sector specific aquaculture activities. Due to this lack of information there is little scope for economic analysis, hence limiting opportunities for providing advice to policy and decision makers.

The Northern Territory Seafood Council (NTSC) and the Northern Territory Government (NTG) recognise the vital need to bridge the knowledge gap regarding the economic impact of the NT seafood industry. This gap severely impedes effective advocacy for industry growth and development by the NTSC and hampers evidence decision-making. Without a comprehensive understanding of the industry's economic footprint throughout the supply chain of each major fishery/sector, it is challenging to address critical issues and identify vulnerable points within the sector.

A whole of fishery and sector analysis, will provide essential insights for targeted advocacy and informed decision-making, fostering sustainable growth, enhancing resilience, and addressing critical issues within the Northern Territory's seafood industry.

Understanding the complete value of the NT seafood industry to the local community is crucial for making strategic decisions related to negotiations such as those concerning Blue Mud Bay and infrastructure investments. It will also contribute to ongoing investment in the industry.

The project aims to test economic protocols and processes identified in FRDC Project 2021-034 to establish cost-effective and valued systems beyond its duration. These systems will incorporate socio-economic information into decision-making processes and shift the culture from a government-driven collection process to one driven by the industry.

Without a plan to highlight the wider socio-economic value and benefits of the industry, the industry may face mounting pressure on its social license to operate, impacting access, industry structure, and fees. Moreover, the lack of understanding regarding the consequences of uncertainty surrounding secure access and potential loss of access for commercial fishers may have unintended effects on the NT seafood industry. Additionally, the limited availability of current financial and economic information for NT fisheries hampers economic analysis and the provision of advice to policymakers and decision-makers, hindering opportunities for growth and sustainability.

With that context in mind, NTSC experience to date identifies a number of known issues with existing data, including:
- Limitations in the scope of data available which has historically excluded measurement of the contributions made by commercial charter fishing, processing of imported seafood, and activities downstream of immediate seafood processing (i.e. transport to retail markets, retail sector activity).
- The poor quality of economic data (such as production, price and employment data) necessary to improve estimates of direct or initial effects from fishing, aquaculture production and processing in some fisheries and for some sub-sectors and seafood processing (where there is a need to further disaggregate ANZSIC categories or investigate alternative means of measurement for fisheries with too few licence holders for data to be reported).
- Gaps in data regarding indirect contributions, including downstream production-induced and consumption-induced effects, where key data regarding employment, household-income and enterprise-level cost of production (i.e. expenditure on goods and services as inputs to fishing and aquaculture production) are unknown.
- Gaps in data for a range of monetised and non-monetised social, environmental and cultural activities which contribute value to individuals and communities. While previous estimations have referred to the social contributions of fisheries and aquaculture to regional communities this has not involved any primary data collection or analysis of secondary data, requiring further work to select specific indicators and the basis of evidence.

In scoping and analysing the available data, the project will use third party providers to:
- Ensure data collection methods are consistent and participant consent and privacy is achieved. The privacy of participants must be protected through adherence to the Australian Privacy Principles in the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth), such that names of individuals are not recorded. Where the explicit informed consent of participants is required this may include a requirement to sign a consent form. Under circumstances where a vulnerable group is consulted, such as Indigenous Territorians, specific consent may be required from a Human Research Ethics Committee to ensure the data collection process causes no harm to participants.
- Ensure data storage is secure and access is limited to the reasonable requirements of the project. All digital data (i.e. from an online survey) would be stored on a secure network with file access restricted to the nominated project team through use of file encryption and passwords. Any primary data collected cannot be used for any purpose other than that required to meet study objectives.