Climate change is expected to alter physical and chemical oceanographic conditions and processes around Australia, yet the influence this could have on the distributions of various marine species is still relatively unknown. The marine waters of South Eastern Australia are expected to be significantly affected by climate change, experiencing the greatest climate-driven changes in the southern hemisphere over the next century. The impacts and opportunities that will result from these changes will depend, in part, on how well the fisheries and aquaculture sectors and their managers respond to these challenges. A sound risk-based approach to informing both management arrangements and decisions by the sectors will be critical for optimizing outcomes. It is essential that the potential impacts of climate change on key resources are assessed and effectively communicated to support the development of policies that allow industry to minimize adverse effects by optimizing adaptation responses (e.g. by providing flexible management arrangements) and seizing opportunities as they arise (e.g. for species where productivity increases).

This project has been identified as a clear and immediate need through the SEAP Plan (draft) and also establishes a platform of baseline information from which we can start to address several key priority areas identified in the Draft Marine National Adaptation Research Plan (NARP). Priorities identified in the draft NARP include 1/ Which farmed species in which locations are most likely to be impacted as a result of climate change?, and for fisheries 2/ Which fishery stocks, in which locations, are most likely to change as a result of climate change? What will those changes be (e.g., in distribution, productivity) and when are they likely to appear under alternative climate change scenarios? Clearly, comprehensive and synthesised information on the sensitivities and tolerances of key species are the first steps required to address these priorities.

Despite the indicators of improvements in fish stock status for SESSF species, the fishery as a whole is failing to catch the TACs of many quota species. Moreover, catch rates for many quota species are continuing to decline despite the historically low levels of fishing effort. The fishery is not in an economic position where it can afford to operate below potential - this under catch equates to a considerable lost opportunity in both the financial value and the volume of fish available for the consumer. Net economic returns for the CTS have recently fallen to $1.4 million in 2013–14, the lowest level since the buyback. NER in the GHaT has been negative since 2008–09. Recent economc analyses (Pascoe pers comm) have revealed that if all vessels could catch the full recommended quota, revenues of the CTS would more than double, while the GHaT revenues would increase by around 24%. For the CTS, average vessel profits are likely to increase by between $200k and $500k, with an average increase of around $380k.

So, what is the cause of the current situation in the SESSF?

There are a variety of different reasons given for the SESSF's TAC undercatch, depending on who you talk to. Anecdotally, it has variously been attributed to reduction in fleet fishing capacity, effort reduction, legislative barriers, spatial closures, changed behaviour of operators, market factors, quota ownership and trading, cost of production, changes in catch per unit of effort, climate change and its impact on oceanographic conditions and potential range shifts of species. It is also quite likely that it is a combination of a number of the above factors.

What can be done?

With such a wide range of potential reasons, it is difficult to determine what further work is required to potentially address these issues in the SESSF. This project centres on development of background papers on each of the issues that will be presented at a workshop designed as the first step in clarifying stakeholder views on the underlying reasons and how they might be resolved in the future.