“Futures of Seafood” is an 18th month multi-disciplinary study co-designed with industry and government. It will draw from existing data, complementary work underway or concluded, and importantly will involve a suite our outputs that can be used by a variety of stakeholders in formats that are fit for purpose.

The study will provide a contemporary description on the state of play of Australia’s seafood system, the supply chain, markets and its reach into communities. It will identify and report on trends, insights, forecasts and cumulative impacts that are impacting (positive and negative) the industry. It will include the first in-depth spatial and descriptive profile of the seafood industry by sector and jurisdiction through spatial mapping and productivity reporting since Marine Matters in 2003. Beyond seafood, it will also identify, describe and map other ocean uses (new, emerging and transitioning), including assumptions about current growth plans / policies / rights completed / taken up, looking towards 2040.

Drawing from information collated, the study will include scenario modelling to model and scrutinise the cumulative impacts of these trends and produce associated impact reporting against productivity and sustainability (social, economic, environmental and governance) metrics for a series of ten scenarios.

It will synthesise the study findings, as well as curate across other studies underway or completed, to develop a series of industry-specific assets (reports, tools, frameworks and systems) that aim to improve knowledge and support ongoing participation in the ocean estate policy conversation. This includes supporting priority contemporary frameworks to support transitions to future states and de-risking industry/sectors.

‘Futures of Seafood’ will support a shared understanding of the potential pathways and opportunities that lie ahead for Australia’s seafood stakeholders during this time of rapid change and transformation. It will furthermore provide a foundation for industry, Government and policy makers to make better decisions, navigate changes, and ensure industry and stakeholders are well-equipped to adapt and hopefully flourish in a dynamic environment.

This study and its intended outputs are consistent with and seeks to promote action against local, national, and global strategic initiatives, including those of the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, the Biodiversity Framework within the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Paris Declaration, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and associated Forward Faster Initiative.

WORK PACKAGE SUMMARY

In short, this is a novel study that describes, maps and models the spatial, economic and social impacts of Government targets and decisions, provides evidence-based insights and charts a course for Australia’s futures of seafood alongside other ocean uses for the coming 10-15 years.

It will be delivered through a series of four work packages. These are founded on an enduring data collation platform, undertaken by a series of expert commissions and overseen and supported by a strong and inclusive governance framework.

Work Package 1: State of Play
• Identify data system to support mapping and describing the current state of the industries/sectors – i.e. locations, GVP, employment, production, jurisdiction input/output.
• Identify social and economic values i.e. contribution to regional communities, nutrition + value of supply chain.
• Deliver a contemporary description on the building blocks and state of play of Australia's ocean food system, its supply chain and markets alongside the other uses of the ocean estate.
• Investigate and report the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry. i.e. Nutritional security; spatial squeeze; working in a changing climate i.e. resilience, adaptation, emergency response; Industry transitions i.e. decarbonisation; Jurisdiction i.e. policy/strategy, production v consumption; Workforce + training; Nature based solutions & investment, sustainable food systems i.e. ESG and sustainability

Work Package 2: Future Estate
• Map and overlay impacts of new and emerging transitioning industries in the ocean estate.
• Identify and describe the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts affecting the seafood industry.
• Map/measure/describe the implications of trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts of these industries and impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry.
• Describe other uses of the ocean estate.

Work Package 3: Scenario Modelling
• Design and develop tool to test future state scenarios for commercial, recreational and indigenous fishing.
• Undertake a series of impact scenario examples: i.e. spatial squeeze/crowded ocean, a changing climate, a regulatory reset, sector case studies and cumulative pressures.
• Use the scenarios to deliver impact reporting on productivity, nutrition and sustainability metrics to include: spatial mapping, heat maps, regulatory options, socio-economic attributes, community sentiment, nutrition, consumer and market impacts and opportunities.

Work Package 4: Synthesis
• Synthesis of research from WPs into a complete report and communications assets.
• Develop a Futures of Seafood Roadmap to navigate the likely impacts of the futures scenarios.

Governance Framework
• This collaboration will bring together leaders from industry sectors and government portfolios of agriculture, energy and environment.
• A strong and inclusive governance model is proposed to capture the breadth of stakeholders and ensure oversight of the study, strategic relevance and timely input from data and information contributors.
• Oversight Committee
• Industry + Community Advisory Committee
• Government Advisory Committee
• WP Technical Teams + Data Management & Communications Teams
• Terms of Reference for each committee with be established.

Project Management
• This will be supported by a mature project administration system, drawing from the Blue Economy project management system, a governance model and also an independent project evaluator to undertake assurance and integrity of program logic and models.

Fish are totemic and a primary food source; and so are part of the deep cultural, spiritual and economic connections Aboriginal communities have to their waterways that are part of ‘Country’. Cultural knowledge tells us that when there’s more water availability cultural fishers experience increased total catches and greater diversity of target species, and they fish more (e.g. increase in recreational and subsistence fishing). These narratives also suggest that as a result of these improved cultural fishing opportunities, there are flow on socio-economic benefits to household budgets, diets of communities, social behaviours and mental health and well-being.

Water is sacred and living; and central to the cultural, social and spiritual identity of Aboriginal people, as well as to their livelihoods. Conceptual models underpinning western water management frameworks and decision making do not incorporate Aboriginal/First Nations socio-cultural complexity, local knowledge and governance arrangements. These are critical – Aboriginal/First Nations people have strong connections with fish, water, rivers and knowledge to contribute to planning, as well as a fundamental right to participate. Water and fish are central to the way of life, two-way knowledge and planning frameworks will support reciprocity in engagement and participation.

Two-Eyed Seeing Frameworks (Ganma, Yolgnu for two-ways) provide a way forward for cultural fishery assessments supporting equitable and sustainable access to shared resources. In this framework, knowledge systems (western and cultural) contribute in parallel, on an equal footing, and both serve as evidence bases to produce an enriched picture of mutual understanding. Application of this framework can empower Aboriginal communities to participate more equitably and negotiate by using their science and values and providing a method for inclusion.

The overall objective of this proposed project is to empower Aboriginal communities through application of a “Two-Eyed seeing framework” (Reid et al. 2020) to participate more equitably and negotiate for cultural fishing practices and water allocation and management. This project will define the cultural fishery and quantify the socio-economic value of cultural fishing in two NSW river regions, and assist communities to identify water management needs for key cultural fish species to support ongoing planning and negotiations. It will improve our current fishery and water management by providing a pathway for cultural fisheries and cultural science to be included. Overall, it will increase our current knowledge of fish and fisheries, by bridging the gap between cultural science and western science practitioners and knowledge holders to share understandings, insights and skills. The application and extension of this framework to a national project will be considered for future use in addressing cultural fishery allocations and management.

Sectors in the blue economy need to understand and manage social expectations in order to maintain their social license and ensure a satisfactory triple bottom line. This is a particular challenge for emerging industries, where data relating to community attitudes and expectations is limited. In the case of Tasmanian seaweed aquaculture, securing social license may be further complicated by existing perceptions and conflict surrounding salmon aquaculture.
The key elements needed to address the challenge of establishing and maintaining a social license for seaweed aquaculture in Tasmania are:
1. A survey of current community attitudes to industry expansion.
2. A tool to understand the evolution of attitudes and test communication strategies, policy options and industry practices in relation to managing social risk.
3. A coherent set of strategies for navigating pathways towards a social licence for seaweed aquaculture.