“Futures of Seafood” is an 18th month multi-disciplinary study co-designed with industry and government. It will draw from existing data, complementary work underway or concluded, and importantly will involve a suite our outputs that can be used by a variety of stakeholders in formats that are fit for purpose.

The study will provide a contemporary description on the state of play of Australia’s seafood system, the supply chain, markets and its reach into communities. It will identify and report on trends, insights, forecasts and cumulative impacts that are impacting (positive and negative) the industry. It will include the first in-depth spatial and descriptive profile of the seafood industry by sector and jurisdiction through spatial mapping and productivity reporting since Marine Matters in 2003. Beyond seafood, it will also identify, describe and map other ocean uses (new, emerging and transitioning), including assumptions about current growth plans / policies / rights completed / taken up, looking towards 2040.

Drawing from information collated, the study will include scenario modelling to model and scrutinise the cumulative impacts of these trends and produce associated impact reporting against productivity and sustainability (social, economic, environmental and governance) metrics for a series of ten scenarios.

It will synthesise the study findings, as well as curate across other studies underway or completed, to develop a series of industry-specific assets (reports, tools, frameworks and systems) that aim to improve knowledge and support ongoing participation in the ocean estate policy conversation. This includes supporting priority contemporary frameworks to support transitions to future states and de-risking industry/sectors.

‘Futures of Seafood’ will support a shared understanding of the potential pathways and opportunities that lie ahead for Australia’s seafood stakeholders during this time of rapid change and transformation. It will furthermore provide a foundation for industry, Government and policy makers to make better decisions, navigate changes, and ensure industry and stakeholders are well-equipped to adapt and hopefully flourish in a dynamic environment.

This study and its intended outputs are consistent with and seeks to promote action against local, national, and global strategic initiatives, including those of the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, the Biodiversity Framework within the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Paris Declaration, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and associated Forward Faster Initiative.

WORK PACKAGE SUMMARY

In short, this is a novel study that describes, maps and models the spatial, economic and social impacts of Government targets and decisions, provides evidence-based insights and charts a course for Australia’s futures of seafood alongside other ocean uses for the coming 10-15 years.

It will be delivered through a series of four work packages. These are founded on an enduring data collation platform, undertaken by a series of expert commissions and overseen and supported by a strong and inclusive governance framework.

Work Package 1: State of Play
• Identify data system to support mapping and describing the current state of the industries/sectors – i.e. locations, GVP, employment, production, jurisdiction input/output.
• Identify social and economic values i.e. contribution to regional communities, nutrition + value of supply chain.
• Deliver a contemporary description on the building blocks and state of play of Australia's ocean food system, its supply chain and markets alongside the other uses of the ocean estate.
• Investigate and report the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry. i.e. Nutritional security; spatial squeeze; working in a changing climate i.e. resilience, adaptation, emergency response; Industry transitions i.e. decarbonisation; Jurisdiction i.e. policy/strategy, production v consumption; Workforce + training; Nature based solutions & investment, sustainable food systems i.e. ESG and sustainability

Work Package 2: Future Estate
• Map and overlay impacts of new and emerging transitioning industries in the ocean estate.
• Identify and describe the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts affecting the seafood industry.
• Map/measure/describe the implications of trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts of these industries and impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry.
• Describe other uses of the ocean estate.

Work Package 3: Scenario Modelling
• Design and develop tool to test future state scenarios for commercial, recreational and indigenous fishing.
• Undertake a series of impact scenario examples: i.e. spatial squeeze/crowded ocean, a changing climate, a regulatory reset, sector case studies and cumulative pressures.
• Use the scenarios to deliver impact reporting on productivity, nutrition and sustainability metrics to include: spatial mapping, heat maps, regulatory options, socio-economic attributes, community sentiment, nutrition, consumer and market impacts and opportunities.

Work Package 4: Synthesis
• Synthesis of research from WPs into a complete report and communications assets.
• Develop a Futures of Seafood Roadmap to navigate the likely impacts of the futures scenarios.

Governance Framework
• This collaboration will bring together leaders from industry sectors and government portfolios of agriculture, energy and environment.
• A strong and inclusive governance model is proposed to capture the breadth of stakeholders and ensure oversight of the study, strategic relevance and timely input from data and information contributors.
• Oversight Committee
• Industry + Community Advisory Committee
• Government Advisory Committee
• WP Technical Teams + Data Management & Communications Teams
• Terms of Reference for each committee with be established.

Project Management
• This will be supported by a mature project administration system, drawing from the Blue Economy project management system, a governance model and also an independent project evaluator to undertake assurance and integrity of program logic and models.

The uptake of best practice approaches in fisheries and aquaculture is influenced by factors that inhibit or enable behaviour change, including psycho-sociological factors (i.e. how change or approaches are framed).
Previous FRDC research has indicated a need to identify how and where behavioural insights/interventions – which draw on psycho-sociological factors such as cognitive biases, social norms, and emotions – can be used to steer behaviour change towards preferred outcomes (e.g. stewardship, safety) in marine sectors. This project builds on current and emerging research on behaviour change in fisheries and aquaculture to consolidate a review of published literature and available grey literature and R&D (from academic and industry domains, including recent FRDC projects relating to behaviour change) that has identified psycho-sociological factors influencing behavioural change. The aim of this literature review is to identify the types of behavioural interventions that can (or potentially, cannot) achieve preferred outcomes for fishing and aquaculture sectors in Australia. Specifically, the review seeks to explore i) which kinds of behavioural interventions can be effective in achieving positive change, ii) where (and just as importantly, where not) these interventions may be applied in fisheries and aquaculture sectors, iii) identify (potential) limitations of interventions, and to iii) bring these findings together to inform and underpin development of two relevant and engaging training webinars and associated resource materials, and iv) make recommendations for further focused trials/intervention research which could be undertaken to further support and expedite desired outcomes in Australian fisheries and aquaculture.

There is rapidly growing interest in the development, application and evaluation of behavioural interventions and they show great potential, however, they are also complex to design, test, and implement. Individuals are more likely to change their behaviours if they have the necessary skills and perceive they can do so (capability), if their environment (physical as well as social) provides an opportunity to do so (opportunity), and if they are motivated to achieve a particular endpoint through this behaviour (motivation), either through conscious decision-making or automatic processes, such as momentary cues. Further, the use of behavioural interventions has not been without critique, with concerns about ethics, manipulation, or risk to human agency. There are also concerns about the effectiveness of behavioural interventions, which may derive from several reasons: for example, due to misunderstanding the behaviour that is intended to be changed and the expected response by the audience. A behavioural intervention will be ineffective if the messaging or delivery causes confusion or if it only has a short-term effect. Some interventions can cause unintended consequences or compensating behaviours resulting in no net effect. These reasons highlight the importance of appropriate contextual understanding and well-defined outcomes for the design of effective behavioural interventions.

There are also different avenues for intervention beyond cognitive biases: education, persuasion, incentivisation, coercion, training, restriction, environmental restructuring, modelling and enablement, and the framing and implementation of these can differ depending on who the intervention is targeted at and under what context. Targeting behaviours in fisheries and aquaculture may enhance engagement and sustainable changes in the longer term (e.g. via development of new social norms), but to achieve this, changes in the determinants of behaviour are required. Actions (e.g. citizen science projects, local management practices), feelings, values (e.g. connectedness to oceans, the realisation of links between ocean health and human health) and social norms are embedded in and influenced by, local environments and social spheres that can transcend geographical boundaries. Our project will explore these nuances and convey concise summaries of behaviour change interventions for end-users via webinars, fact sheets, a simple decision tree tool (described below) and several short videos. The project intentionally has a broad focus (across fisheries and aquaculture sectors) in its review and outputs, as it is designed to equip potential developers and implementers of behavioural interventions with the skills and knowledge to do so in their own unique context. However, we will engage with industry partners (including FRDC extension officers and the industry advisory groups) to specifically ensure that the knowledge and tools produced (i.e. extension products) will be accessible and adaptable to the diversity of relevant contexts across these sectors - and useful for end-users seeking to motivate behaviour change whilst still retaining industry trust and engagement.

The project brings together necessary interdisciplinary research expertise (details outlined below) in the fields of behavioural economics, resource and fisheries economics, socio-ecology, fisheries ecology, science communication and cognitive psychology. In addition, the transdisciplinary potential of this project will be achieved via collaboration with a research advisory panel (to ensure rigorous research outcomes) and an industry level advisory panel (to ensure that the results and suggested interventions/activities are fit-for-purpose and accessible to the sector). Working with these panels (which would ideally include FRDC partners), we will ensure that the research is co-designed – and thus, project outputs are fit-for-purpose/context. Our team’s existing collective research on adoption and uptake of interventions clearly shows that engaging and involving end-user at creation stages increases uptake of results – hence, the value of our industry advisory panel. In addition, by engaging with industry leaders, we will create industry champions for the project who may assist with the dissemination of outputs. Together, the advisory groups will help to further define/adapt the scope of the project to achieve impact.

Overall, these collaborations and contributions will ensure that this project will deliver a comprehensive and industry-relevant overview of current understanding of behaviour change interventions, that addresses end-users’ identified needs, and that inspires community trust, in formats that are palatable and accessible to them and the fisheries and aquaculture sectors more broadly..