Coastal lagoon systems in Tasmania form a fundamental part of coastal ecosystems. Healthy lagoons support local biodiversity, and play a key role in nutrient cycling and flood protection. They provide opportunities for sustainable aquaculture, fishing and tourism, while also being appreciated for their recreational amenity and cultural values. Sustainable management of coastal lagoons is essential to environmental and socioeconomic development.

There is limited information about the ecosystem drivers that are influencing the changes being observed in Pipe Clay Lagoon, leading to knowledge gaps in decision making tools and monitoring strategies required to identify and mitigate these changes. The proposed application is a multifaceted approach to investigate the environmental drivers of change in Pipe Clay Lagoon. The findings can then be used to provide valuable guidance for the management and conservation of other coastal lagoons in Tasmania facing similar challenges, providing a model for proactive monitoring and ongoing sustainability.

The FRDC has a responsibility to ensure that research is undertaken to assist in the management of fisheries and aquaculture resources for ongoing sustainability. The changes being experienced in Pipe Clay Lagoon will have implications on the availability and suitability of the lagoon as a sustainable aquaculture site. The planned approach and objectives of the application align with the FRDC’s R&D Plan for 2020-2025 through:

- Building people's capacity and capability
- Ensuring that resulting knowledge and innovation is adopted for impact through awareness of the needs of the ‘adopter’, local context and effective networking
- Continual improvement and collaboration of industry and community to deliver competitive advantage, healthier ecosystems and community support
- Provision of foundational information

Equally and importantly the application aligns with the NRM Strategy for Southern Tasmania 2030 for Pipe Clay Lagoon and similar systems in that wetland health is improved for socio-economically important systems by working with key partners and encouraging investment in monitoring, land and water management practices and on-ground works.
The enthusiasm of those engaged in the stakeholder consultation process was a strong indication of the need, interest and urgency of the application.

Recognising that harvest strategies are not particularly effective in meeting the needs of the recreational fishing sector, there is a need to identify the correct vehicle(s) for appropriately considering the objectives of the sector in management frameworks. This will require intensive engagement with stakeholders through national and State peak bodies and fishery managers to establish a shared understanding of the limitations of current fisheries management frameworks and promote innovation in formulating alternative systems.

The need to develop a systems model for the recreational sector has been identified as critical to ensuring fisheries management frameworks effectively recognise recreational fishing considerations. The model would provide a framework for fisheries managers and recreational sector stakeholders to collaborate in designing and implementing the intensive consultation and technical processes necessary to ensure recreational fishing drivers are understood and information, data baselines and monitoring needs are agreed. Addressing this critical gap will enable the development of fishery management tools which are better able to achieve fishery management goals and are supported by all stakeholders.

This project will undertake intensive engagement with the recreational fishing sector and fisheries managers to build a consolidated understanding of the recreational sector and the values, goals and motivators of model identified segments within the fishery which will provide important inputs in fisheries management frameworks. It will examine the pre-conditions for recreational sector objective setting and design a systematic process to ensure objectives are rigorously formulated and effectively integrated into fisheries management plans and harvest strategies, with consideration of the needs of all resource users.

The key output will be a systems model which defines objective setting processes and outputs prior to the commencement of management planning processes. This will establish clear guideposts and criteria, from which managers and stakeholders can confidently progress to management plan and harvest strategy development in a responsible manner.

“Futures of Seafood” is an 18th month multi-disciplinary study co-designed with industry and government. It will draw from existing data, complementary work underway or concluded, and importantly will involve a suite our outputs that can be used by a variety of stakeholders in formats that are fit for purpose.

The study will provide a contemporary description on the state of play of Australia’s seafood system, the supply chain, markets and its reach into communities. It will identify and report on trends, insights, forecasts and cumulative impacts that are impacting (positive and negative) the industry. It will include the first in-depth spatial and descriptive profile of the seafood industry by sector and jurisdiction through spatial mapping and productivity reporting since Marine Matters in 2003. Beyond seafood, it will also identify, describe and map other ocean uses (new, emerging and transitioning), including assumptions about current growth plans / policies / rights completed / taken up, looking towards 2040.

Drawing from information collated, the study will include scenario modelling to model and scrutinise the cumulative impacts of these trends and produce associated impact reporting against productivity and sustainability (social, economic, environmental and governance) metrics for a series of ten scenarios.

It will synthesise the study findings, as well as curate across other studies underway or completed, to develop a series of industry-specific assets (reports, tools, frameworks and systems) that aim to improve knowledge and support ongoing participation in the ocean estate policy conversation. This includes supporting priority contemporary frameworks to support transitions to future states and de-risking industry/sectors.

‘Futures of Seafood’ will support a shared understanding of the potential pathways and opportunities that lie ahead for Australia’s seafood stakeholders during this time of rapid change and transformation. It will furthermore provide a foundation for industry, Government and policy makers to make better decisions, navigate changes, and ensure industry and stakeholders are well-equipped to adapt and hopefully flourish in a dynamic environment.

This study and its intended outputs are consistent with and seeks to promote action against local, national, and global strategic initiatives, including those of the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, the Biodiversity Framework within the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Paris Declaration, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and associated Forward Faster Initiative.

WORK PACKAGE SUMMARY

In short, this is a novel study that describes, maps and models the spatial, economic and social impacts of Government targets and decisions, provides evidence-based insights and charts a course for Australia’s futures of seafood alongside other ocean uses for the coming 10-15 years.

It will be delivered through a series of four work packages. These are founded on an enduring data collation platform, undertaken by a series of expert commissions and overseen and supported by a strong and inclusive governance framework.

Work Package 1: State of Play
• Identify data system to support mapping and describing the current state of the industries/sectors – i.e. locations, GVP, employment, production, jurisdiction input/output.
• Identify social and economic values i.e. contribution to regional communities, nutrition + value of supply chain.
• Deliver a contemporary description on the building blocks and state of play of Australia's ocean food system, its supply chain and markets alongside the other uses of the ocean estate.
• Investigate and report the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry. i.e. Nutritional security; spatial squeeze; working in a changing climate i.e. resilience, adaptation, emergency response; Industry transitions i.e. decarbonisation; Jurisdiction i.e. policy/strategy, production v consumption; Workforce + training; Nature based solutions & investment, sustainable food systems i.e. ESG and sustainability

Work Package 2: Future Estate
• Map and overlay impacts of new and emerging transitioning industries in the ocean estate.
• Identify and describe the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts affecting the seafood industry.
• Map/measure/describe the implications of trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts of these industries and impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry.
• Describe other uses of the ocean estate.

Work Package 3: Scenario Modelling
• Design and develop tool to test future state scenarios for commercial, recreational and indigenous fishing.
• Undertake a series of impact scenario examples: i.e. spatial squeeze/crowded ocean, a changing climate, a regulatory reset, sector case studies and cumulative pressures.
• Use the scenarios to deliver impact reporting on productivity, nutrition and sustainability metrics to include: spatial mapping, heat maps, regulatory options, socio-economic attributes, community sentiment, nutrition, consumer and market impacts and opportunities.

Work Package 4: Synthesis
• Synthesis of research from WPs into a complete report and communications assets.
• Develop a Futures of Seafood Roadmap to navigate the likely impacts of the futures scenarios.

Governance Framework
• This collaboration will bring together leaders from industry sectors and government portfolios of agriculture, energy and environment.
• A strong and inclusive governance model is proposed to capture the breadth of stakeholders and ensure oversight of the study, strategic relevance and timely input from data and information contributors.
• Oversight Committee
• Industry + Community Advisory Committee
• Government Advisory Committee
• WP Technical Teams + Data Management & Communications Teams
• Terms of Reference for each committee with be established.

Project Management
• This will be supported by a mature project administration system, drawing from the Blue Economy project management system, a governance model and also an independent project evaluator to undertake assurance and integrity of program logic and models.