Climate change is already impacting species from a range of trophic levels around Australia. In recent years, shifts in species distribution have been documented at a range of lower trophic levels in Australia (Hobday et al 2007), including phytoplankton (Thompson et al 2009), intertidal invertebrates (Pitt et al 2010), and coastal fish (Last et al 2010), and are now underpinning management responses. However, for Australia’s iconic higher trophic level conservation-dependent marine taxa, such as seabirds (and shorebirds) and marine mammals, there is a knowledge gap regarding responses to climate variability and change. These species are protected throughout Australia and in some cases are recovering from previous anthropogenic impacts. Resolution of climate change impacts from other anthropogenic threats is needed for these species, in order to implement appropriate and timely adaptive management responses. Unfortunately, for most species, evidence of responses to environmental variability and the functional processes driving these affects is limited (but see References in Attachment 1). This is seen by managers as a major impediment to ongoing conservation management and planning in the face of climate variability and change. In addition, monitoring approaches for some of these species may also need to be reassessed and modified in order to better detect the impacts of climate change. Efficient ongoing monitoring is also required to allow adaptation responses to be validated. Results from this proposal will support adaptation by researchers undertaking the monitoring and adaptation by managers. Furthermore, options for enhancing the adaptive capacity of species impacted by climate change will fostered as a result of this project. (References provided in Attachment 1).

The existing research predicts that climate change will have both positive and negative impacts on reproduction, recruitment and distribution of biomass of Australia’s commercially important marine species. Many fishery stakeholders acknowledge that the issue of climate change should be a high priority issue for fisheries management. Current research highlights the potentially significant impacts of climate change on fisheries and fisheries management, but to date strategies for fisheries management to address climate change have been lacking. The current ability of fisheries management to cope with these changes is unknown and therefore must be assessed to test its resilience, ability to adapt and the changes that may be required. AFMA is a prime candidate for leading this assessment since it has substantive responsibility for those areas of the Australian fishing zone that are expected to be hot-spots for climate change effects, such as SE Australia, one of the fastest warming areas in the ocean. In addition, the issues of climate change are canvassed in draft government policies for fisheries and this project could form part of the response to those policy needs.

To-date no jurisdiction in Australia has assessed the resilience of its management system to these anticipated impacts and it is likely to break some new ground in what may need to be done for management systems to effectively adapt to climate change and the options that may be available. Engagement with and participation from key fishery stakeholders is essential for this project to be a success and to assist in any subsequent fisheries management change processes. Overall, this project has the potential to benefit the marine ecosystem and fisheries stakeholders with a vested interest in climate change adaptation, to increase the benefits and reduce the risks. While the production end of the supply chain is often the focus, this project will also consider the supply chain risks, following approaches developed in recent FRDC projects (Hobday et al. 2015; Fleming et al. 2014; Lim-Camacho et al. 2015; Plaganyi et al. 2014; van Putten et al. 2015)