Using information for 'data-rich' species to inform assessments of 'data-poor' species through Bayesian stock assessment methods
Over 300 species are caught in the SEF, of which around 100 have commercial value. Twenty five species comprise around 90% of the landed catch. Each year, however, quotas are set for only around 17 species. There are 10 of these species for which there is (or has been) some formal stock assessment (that may not occur every year). For all of the remaining quota species and some of the more important non-quota species, no formal assessment is undertaken and the only assessment that can be made is based on investigation of trends in catch and effort and size distribution and anecdotal input from scientists and industry. There is simply not enough resources to undertake formal stock assessments for the wide range of commercial species landed in the SEF. Yet, each of these species is an important component of the catch of fishers. If the fishery is to continue to operate in its current form and meet the strategic assessments required under the EPBC Act, some form of formal assessment is required.
A recently completed ARF project (Production parameters from the fisheries literature for SEF-like species - Project no R99/0308) demonstrated the utility of using information for "similar" species when conducting assessments for SEF species. Using key parameters such as the virgin biomass, the rate of natural mortality, and the “steepness” of the stock-relationship relationship, a simple formula was developed for identifying “similar” stocks / species and an algorithm was developed for constructing prior probability distributions for these parameters. The resultant distributions can be used in Bayesian stock assessments and as the basis for sensitivity tests when applying other methods of stock assessments. The current project will refine the prior distributions for the production parameters and develop and test methods of stock assessment that use the results of assessments for well-studied species in a formal manner to inform assessments of ‘data-poor’ species. If successful, the methods developed would lead to significant benefits not only for the assessment and management of "data poor" SEF low priority, by-product and by-catch species, but also for a range of new and developing fisheries in Australia.
Final report
Digital video techniques for assessing population size structure and habitat of greenlip and Roe’s abalone
To make more reliable projections on future catches of abalone, catch data needs to supplemented with an appreciation of what is coming into the fishery. This requires information on in-water stocks to allow predictions of new recruitment to be confirmed and recruitment failures to be identified.
Commercial divers have unequalled access to in-water stocks, particularly in remote regions. Although commercial divers regularly dive areas of interest, and could provide a cost effective means of monitoring stocks, this has been difficult to achieve because:
1) the traditional process for collecting data is considered non-independent (compromised) in the hands of commercial divers, and
2) divers perceive caliper and slate technology as slow, an undue interference and insufficient in coverage to supply representative datasets.
What is needed is an efficient, cost effective stock monitoring process that utilises commercial abalone divers, around the time of their normal fishing activities, to give fisheries managers and quota holders critical in-water information for the management of stocks. Recent preliminary trials, where researchers utilised digital video surveys filmed by commercial divers, clearly provides the potential for such a process.
Whereas researchers need such footage as a data source, the video also provides a mechanism for divers to 'ground truth' their own perceptions of change on surveyed reefs and convey what they are seeing to licence owners. Most importantly, such a system gives divers a further opportunity to contribute to stock management and reduce licence fees under cost recovery regimes.
Presently, video is played back and measurements are taken on two software packages. This process needs streamlining so that access to frames and measuring of abalone is time efficient. Measures and images generated from such a process need to be stored in an appropriate database, where they can be accessed through simple interrogation.
Final report
An integrated analysis of the growth rates of southern bluefin tuna for use in estimating the catch at age matrix in the stock assessment
The uncertainty in the SBT catch at age matrix has been identified as one of the main sources of unaccounted uncertainty in the SBT stock assessments. The robustness of of the assessment to this uncertainty is unknown. Moreover, a critical issue in the SBT stock assessment is the internal inconsistency that exists among the inputs data and the need to develop improved models that can provide consistent interpretations for all of the available data. These inconstancies are making it increasing difficult to provide robust and scientifically objective conclusions about short term changes in the status of the SBT population. The model used for estimating SBT growth rates has been identified as a likely factor contributing to the apparent inconsistencies in the data. The current model of SBT growth was developed in 1993/94 and make simple assumptions about how growth may have changed since 1951. It assumes that growth rates since 1980 have remained equal to those measured by the 1983/84 tagging program. The current model fails to address the question of whether growth may have increased with the continued declined in the SBT stock since 1980 or the question of whether growth may decrease in the future if the population recovers. Given that incorporation of change in growth between the 1960s and 1980s had significant effects on the stock assessments and substantially reduced estimates of the probability of recovery, it is critical for the provision of reliable assessments and management advice that changes in SBT growth are appropriately and accurately accounted for in the analyses.
Since the currently used growth models were developed, substantial amounts of new information has been collected on SBT growth based on direct aging, otolith increment measurements and tagging experiments conducted in the 1990’s. Initial analyses of some of these data suggest that the assumptions about changes in SBT growth embedded in the current models are likely to be inadequate. There is a need to incorporate these new data within a comprehensive analysis and to develop an integrated model for all the various sources of information on SBT growth. Such an integrated model should provide the basis for addressing uncertainties associated with the catch at age matrix within the SBT stock assessment. Such an integrated growth model would allow for the development of improved assessment models. Such models are needed in order to be able to provide consistent interpretations of the available input data and thus improve the reliability and robustness of the management advice based on these models.
Final report
SCRC: SCRC Honours Scholarship H 3.4 - Development of Near-Infra Red method to detect and control microbial spoilage (Dr Shane Powell: Student Ms Nthabiseng Tito)
Final report
Spoilage of fresh fish products by the action of bacteria is one of the main causes of the short shelf-life of these products. A range of bacteria are responsible for this and are referred to collectively as "spoilage bacteria". Currently methods to detect both spoilage of the product and the presence of number of bacteria are time-consuming, for example requiring 24-hour incubation periods, or require specialised labour such as tasting panels. Near infra-red spectroscopy (NIR) is widely used in the food industry to monitor factors such as fat and moisture content in a range of foods. Although it has been used to distinguish different types of bacteria and, in a few cases, to quantify the number of bacteria in different materials, there is a lack of information on the ability of the method to quantify bacteria directly on food products. The aim of this project was to determine whether NIR had the potential to be used as a method to detect and predict microbial spoilage of fresh fish products.
NIR was easily able to distinguish between fresh Atlantic Salmon fillets and those stored for nine days at 4°C indicating that NIR can detect spoilage. Partial least squares regression prediction models for the number of total bacteria and the number of Enterobacteriaceae present were developed. These models used the NIR spectra collected when the fish was fresh to predict the number of bacteria that would be present nine days later. There are many factors (protein and fat content of the salmon itself for example) that contribute to the differences in the NIR spectra that are unrelated to the numbers of bacteria. Hence for any model to be useful it needs to include as many of these variables as possible. In conclusion, the results of this project show that NIR has potential to be a useful method for detecting and predicting bacterial levels on fish but much more work is required to develop a suitably robust model.
Review of FRDC's Industry Partnership Agreements (IPAs), Research Advisory Committees (RACs), Subprograms and Coordination Programs
Developing improved methods for stock assessment in spatially complex fisheries using Blue-eye Trevalla as a case study
There is considerable scope to enhance spatially-based management arrangements for species with broad or disjunct distributions, or species that are targeted by different gears in different areas or habitats. For example, current SESSF management arrangements do not consider stock structure in Blue-eye Trevalla, although it ranges from WA to Queensland and beyond Australian waters, and preliminary analysis showed some evidence for separate stocks between the SESSF and ECDW seamounts. There is an immediate need to develop and incorporate new spatially-based arrangements into management of Blue-eye Trevalla in response to complex spatial patterns in the fishery that include a change of fishing methods through time, whale interactions increasing in some areas, re-location of effort into underutilized locations (e.g. ECDF seamounts), and the series of recent and planned area closures that include Commonwealth Marine Reserves (CMR) in the GAB, off the eastern seaboard and on the offshore Tasmantid Seamount Chain, and fishery closures being implemented by AFMA and NSW Fisheries to project Harrisson’s and Southern Dogfish. There is a more general need to assess options for managing separate stocks of other species – such as regionalising TAC’s – and to evaluate options against EBFM performance measures that include economic and environmental indicators.
Final report
Evaluating the environmental drivers of mud crab (Scylla serrata) catches in Australia
Mud crabs (Scylla serrata) are a fast growing, short-lived species whose abundance appears to be linked to the prevailing environmental conditions during their life history. Mud crab fisheries are typically subject to high fishing mortality rates, with little carryover of stock from one year's cohort to the next. This combination of factors means that there is often extreme inter-annual variation in mud crab catches. Such variability may be observed across several jurisdictions, can produce uncertainty for both users and resource managers alike and hinders further investment in the mud crab fishing industry.
A greater understanding of the environmental processes that drive mud crab catches will enable the development of models which will remove some of this uncertainty. Crab fishers need some forecasting ability not only to predict catch, but also to assist in their business planning. For example, crabbers entering expensive 2 or 3 year lease agreements when mud crabs are abundant may experience financial difficulties if crabs (through natural circumstances or otherwise) suddenly become scarce.
Such a model would also assist in the proactive management of the mud crab fishery, whereby catch or effort limitations could be imposed when catches are predicted to be low. However, the model would need to be tested for several years before being used as a decision making tool for management.
This study will examine cause and effect relationships at the regional, jurisdictional and national levels and take into account the various environmental/meteorological conditions operating at these different scales.
Final report
Assessment of the impacts of seal populations on the seafood industry in South Australia
The last 25 years have seen a 3.5 fold increase in the population size of New Zealand fur seals (NZFS) in SA, which now number over 85,000 individuals. This recovery may continue for a further 15-30 years, and the level at which populations may stabilise is unknown. New haul-out sites and breeding colonies are establishing across the State, some in close proximity to finfish aquaculture, and major commercial and recreational fishing areas. In addition, an Australian fur seal population has recently established in SA and has more than doubled in the last five years. There is also growing concern from the seafood and ecotourism (little penguins, giant cuttlefish) industries and the community that fur seals are overabundant and that their populations and impacts need to be managed. As a consequence of this broad industry and public concern, this project was listed as one of the priority areas for investment by the SAFRAB.
Most of the seals that interact with fisheries, aquaculture and ecotourism are juvenile and sub-adult males that restrict their feeding the shelf waters; however the diet and foraging behaviour of this part of the population is poorly understood. Little is also understood about the potential competitive interactions between the three species of seals that may be limiting the recovery of the threatened Australian sea lion. The project aims to investigate the diets and foraging distributions of seals in SA’s gulf and shelf waters to assess the importance of commercial fish and finfish aquaculture species in their diet. Trophic modelling will be used to assess the impact of consumption on current and future seafood production, and industry questionnaires and consultation will be used to assess the economic impact and the degree and nature of interactions between seals and finfish aquaculture, fisheries and marine ecotourism industries.