The proposed study will produce information about the supply-chain economic contribution of selected small scale fisheries in Western Australia, as well as a method that can be applied to making these estimates for other fisheries.

The proposed approach includes making three separate estimates of the supply-chain contribution of selected fisheries using three different levels of information: (1 – minimal cost) published fishery production data and a regional economic model that describes inter-regional flows using published statistical data, (2 – minimum consultation) the same as 1 but also including a workshop with key stakeholders to inform the assumptions, and (3 – maximum data) the same as 2 but also collecting primary data from businesses along the supply-chain. As such, the estimates produced for the selected fisheries using approach 3 will be of high quality and the recommended method described in the guidelines will be informed by a comparison of the cost and performance of undertaking the analysis using each level of information.

Three approaches to obtain supply chain data will be utilised and compared in this project. Below summarises the set of data sources within each approach.

Minimal cost approach
Fishery production statistics: Published production statistics (State of the Fisheries 2020/21*) or data request to DPIRD
Fishery financials and employment: Published profiles (if available) or matched fisheries (as per 2017-210)
Supply-chain flows: Analysis of regional input-output tables, taken as given
Supply-chain financials and employment: Analysis of regional input-output tables

Minimal consultation approach
Fishery production statistics: Published production statistics (State of the Fisheries 2020/21*) or data request to DPIRD
Fishery financials and employment: Published profiles (if available) or matched fisheries (as per 2017-210)
Supply-chain flows: Estimated by workshop with stakeholders, starting from input-output table estimates
Supply-chain financials and employment: Analysis of regional input-output tables

Maximum data approach
Fishery production statistics: Published production statistics (State of the Fisheries 2020/21*) or data request to DPIRD
Fishery financials and employment: Primary data
Supply-chain flows: Primary data
Supply-chain financials and employment: Primary data

* Newman, S.J., Wise, B.S., Santoro, K.G. and Gaughan, D.J. (eds) 2021, Status Reports of the Fisheries and Aquatic Resources of Western Australia 2020/21: The State of the Fisheries, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Western Australia.

Key to estimating the supply-chain flows for the low-data approaches, we will apply the direct coefficients from input-output tables within our RISE models to the value of each fishery to estimate the value of each node of the supply chain for each fishery. The input-output model tells us for each dollar of sales from the fishing sector there are sales to other sectors (i.e. processing, wholesale trade, retail trade, food services). Subsequently, those sectors also have sales to other sectors. By applying these coefficients in sequence we can estimate the value of each node of the supply chain. Data for input-output models are held by BDO and ultimately sourced from publications by ABS, RBA, ATO and other public organisations.

Under the minimal consultation approach, we will refine the supply-chain map developed under the minimal cost approach by eliciting judgement by key stakeholders. These stakeholders will have an idea of the size of the supply chain nodes and will be able to confirm or adjust the values according to their knowledge.

Under the maximum data approach, we will interview businesses along the supply chain in order to collect data to value each supply chain node. We will elicit the value of each business and the number and size of businesses at each node. Information on the number and approximate size of businesses at each supply chain node will be sought from industry participants at the workshop. Contact details for businesses willing to be involved in the interview process with also be sought at the workshop.

The demand for alternative proteins is increasing globally, and although the impact on the fishing and aquaculture sectors is lagging, it is an opportune time to review the potential risks and opportunities. This will help us reposition the sector to make use of the opportunities and mitigate the risks.

Our multidisciplinary team will deliver a detailed assessment of risks and opportunities, and engage stakeholders to understand their needs, concerns and impact pathways. We will use our analysis to demonstrate the potential pathways they can use to make use of the opportunities and mitigate the risks.

Our project will:
- Understand the opportunities and risks for the growing trend of alternative proteins on the fishing and aquaculture sectors and supply chain
- Assess the potential impacts of alternative proteins on the fishing and aquaculture sectors and supply chain through scenario modelling
- Engage deeply with fishing, aquaculture and related stakeholders to co-design interpretation of insights into risks and opportunities as well as formulating options and responses
- Make recommendations on how fishing and aquaculture sectors and enterprises might re-position to embrace benefits associated with alternative proteins, and respond to associated risks.

Relevant outcomes:
Outcome 1: Growth for enduring prosperity
Outcome 3: A culture that is inclusive and forward thinking
Outcome 5: Community trust, respect and value
Enabling strategy III: Promote innovation and entrepreneurship
Enabling Strategy IV: Build capability and capacity

“Futures of Seafood” is an 18th month multi-disciplinary study co-designed with industry and government. It will draw from existing data, complementary work underway or concluded, and importantly will involve a suite our outputs that can be used by a variety of stakeholders in formats that are fit for purpose.

The study will provide a contemporary description on the state of play of Australia’s seafood system, the supply chain, markets and its reach into communities. It will identify and report on trends, insights, forecasts and cumulative impacts that are impacting (positive and negative) the industry. It will include the first in-depth spatial and descriptive profile of the seafood industry by sector and jurisdiction through spatial mapping and productivity reporting since Marine Matters in 2003. Beyond seafood, it will also identify, describe and map other ocean uses (new, emerging and transitioning), including assumptions about current growth plans / policies / rights completed / taken up, looking towards 2040.

Drawing from information collated, the study will include scenario modelling to model and scrutinise the cumulative impacts of these trends and produce associated impact reporting against productivity and sustainability (social, economic, environmental and governance) metrics for a series of ten scenarios.

It will synthesise the study findings, as well as curate across other studies underway or completed, to develop a series of industry-specific assets (reports, tools, frameworks and systems) that aim to improve knowledge and support ongoing participation in the ocean estate policy conversation. This includes supporting priority contemporary frameworks to support transitions to future states and de-risking industry/sectors.

‘Futures of Seafood’ will support a shared understanding of the potential pathways and opportunities that lie ahead for Australia’s seafood stakeholders during this time of rapid change and transformation. It will furthermore provide a foundation for industry, Government and policy makers to make better decisions, navigate changes, and ensure industry and stakeholders are well-equipped to adapt and hopefully flourish in a dynamic environment.

This study and its intended outputs are consistent with and seeks to promote action against local, national, and global strategic initiatives, including those of the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, the Biodiversity Framework within the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Paris Declaration, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and associated Forward Faster Initiative.

WORK PACKAGE SUMMARY

In short, this is a novel study that describes, maps and models the spatial, economic and social impacts of Government targets and decisions, provides evidence-based insights and charts a course for Australia’s futures of seafood alongside other ocean uses for the coming 10-15 years.

It will be delivered through a series of four work packages. These are founded on an enduring data collation platform, undertaken by a series of expert commissions and overseen and supported by a strong and inclusive governance framework.

Work Package 1: State of Play
• Identify data system to support mapping and describing the current state of the industries/sectors – i.e. locations, GVP, employment, production, jurisdiction input/output.
• Identify social and economic values i.e. contribution to regional communities, nutrition + value of supply chain.
• Deliver a contemporary description on the building blocks and state of play of Australia's ocean food system, its supply chain and markets alongside the other uses of the ocean estate.
• Investigate and report the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry. i.e. Nutritional security; spatial squeeze; working in a changing climate i.e. resilience, adaptation, emergency response; Industry transitions i.e. decarbonisation; Jurisdiction i.e. policy/strategy, production v consumption; Workforce + training; Nature based solutions & investment, sustainable food systems i.e. ESG and sustainability

Work Package 2: Future Estate
• Map and overlay impacts of new and emerging transitioning industries in the ocean estate.
• Identify and describe the trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts affecting the seafood industry.
• Map/measure/describe the implications of trends, forecasts and cumulative impacts of these industries and impacts (positive and negative) on Australia's seafood industry.
• Describe other uses of the ocean estate.

Work Package 3: Scenario Modelling
• Design and develop tool to test future state scenarios for commercial, recreational and indigenous fishing.
• Undertake a series of impact scenario examples: i.e. spatial squeeze/crowded ocean, a changing climate, a regulatory reset, sector case studies and cumulative pressures.
• Use the scenarios to deliver impact reporting on productivity, nutrition and sustainability metrics to include: spatial mapping, heat maps, regulatory options, socio-economic attributes, community sentiment, nutrition, consumer and market impacts and opportunities.

Work Package 4: Synthesis
• Synthesis of research from WPs into a complete report and communications assets.
• Develop a Futures of Seafood Roadmap to navigate the likely impacts of the futures scenarios.

Governance Framework
• This collaboration will bring together leaders from industry sectors and government portfolios of agriculture, energy and environment.
• A strong and inclusive governance model is proposed to capture the breadth of stakeholders and ensure oversight of the study, strategic relevance and timely input from data and information contributors.
• Oversight Committee
• Industry + Community Advisory Committee
• Government Advisory Committee
• WP Technical Teams + Data Management & Communications Teams
• Terms of Reference for each committee with be established.

Project Management
• This will be supported by a mature project administration system, drawing from the Blue Economy project management system, a governance model and also an independent project evaluator to undertake assurance and integrity of program logic and models.