Climate change is expected to alter physical and chemical oceanographic conditions and processes around Australia, yet the influence this could have on the distributions of various marine species is still relatively unknown. The marine waters of South Eastern Australia are expected to be significantly affected by climate change, experiencing the greatest climate-driven changes in the southern hemisphere over the next century. The impacts and opportunities that will result from these changes will depend, in part, on how well the fisheries and aquaculture sectors and their managers respond to these challenges. A sound risk-based approach to informing both management arrangements and decisions by the sectors will be critical for optimizing outcomes. It is essential that the potential impacts of climate change on key resources are assessed and effectively communicated to support the development of policies that allow industry to minimize adverse effects by optimizing adaptation responses (e.g. by providing flexible management arrangements) and seizing opportunities as they arise (e.g. for species where productivity increases).

This project has been identified as a clear and immediate need through the SEAP Plan (draft) and also establishes a platform of baseline information from which we can start to address several key priority areas identified in the Draft Marine National Adaptation Research Plan (NARP). Priorities identified in the draft NARP include 1/ Which farmed species in which locations are most likely to be impacted as a result of climate change?, and for fisheries 2/ Which fishery stocks, in which locations, are most likely to change as a result of climate change? What will those changes be (e.g., in distribution, productivity) and when are they likely to appear under alternative climate change scenarios? Clearly, comprehensive and synthesised information on the sensitivities and tolerances of key species are the first steps required to address these priorities.

The south-eastern waters of Australia are predicted to be the most vulnerable area to global change, due to changes in East Australian, Leeuwin and Flinders Currents and associated increases in water temperatures; modification of local ocean processes, like coastal upwelling; sea-level rise driven threats to inshore habitats, which have critical fish nursery roles; and other threats to inshore habitats posed by simultaneous increases in salinity, river flow and stratification of shallow water bodies. Together these shifts will impact species composition of functional groups and communities in the region. Moreover it will affect the sustainability of the fisheries (commercial and recreational) and aquaculture resources, which will have social and economic flow-on effects for the businesses and communities; particularly as they will be exacerbated by changes in market conditions, input costs and food prices as global change affects consumer purchasing behaviour changes. This means there is a strong need for information that casts light on exposure and vulnerability of the region and identifies robust management and adaptation strategies. Major benefits will only be achieved if there is a means of synthesising information across all topics (ecological, economic and social) to provide system level quantitative assessments and insights. This requires a method that can easily address changing socially and economically driven human behaviour, environments, ecological components, productivity and distributions and cross-jurisdictional human activities and management. Atlantis is uniquely placed in that it can directly address all of these critical factors. The SEAP program can also benefit from the years of development that have resulted in a working Atlantis model for the SE region.