One of the most likely and immediate projected climate change impacts is an increase in sea levels, which has the potential to critically impact the state and function of coastal systems (CSIRO 2009; DCC 2009, 2010). While there are current investigations and reports on a number of aspects of marine tourism (e.g. diving, fishing and whale watching), there is no national study on the tourism value of beaches, arguably the most valuable and threatened coastal tourism asset.
Work by the applicants has highlighted the social and economic importance of beaches for tourism and recreation in Australian coastal cities (Raybould and Lazarow 2009; Lazarow et al. 2008; Lazarow 2009), which is in turn reliant upon the character and natural state of assets.
This project will provide a national classification of beach and surf assets in key 'seachange' locations chosen for their vulnerability to projected climate changes, also estimating the existing economic importance of critically vulnerable assets. Understanding the economic streams emanating from tourism and recreation linked to these assets, and how changes in resource quality and accessibility will impact on these streams at various time horizons and under different climate change projections will allow communities, industry and decision-makers to make better-informed decisions.
It will also identify key social trigger points which determine; tourism and recreation behaviour, particularly selection of destinations; the economic consequences which flow from changes in behaviour; and the manner in which key stakeholder and user groups will respond to projected climate change scenarios.

The overarching perception across scientists, coastal industries and natural resource managers is that the coastal zone is at high risk for the full range of climate change impacts from land and sea (Simms Woodroffe 2008). There is an overwhelming consensus from industry and managers that a most urgent need in achieving practical adaptive solutions to shifting and variable environmental resources is a consolidated information base of natural resources and industry resources (Simms Woodroffe 2008; Leith Haward 2010; SRCMA 2010, I&INSW comment, Colin Creighton (FRDC) comment, industry feedback). Identification of spatial information about climate change threats, industry location and production and essential environmental resources (water quality, primary production and physical locations) needs to be synthesized and cross referenced to provide for the most informed adaptation strategies.

Of the 5 specific recommendations or needs for adaptation to climate change in the oyster industry, as reviewed by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research facility (Leith and Haward 2010), the following three will be adressed here:

1) a program of coastal and estuarine monitoring in which oyster growers, regional universities and regional NRM authorities are partners
4) continued development of knowledge-action networks that include growers, industry bodies, scientists, regional NRM agencies and representatives of state and local government;
5) provision of clear and concise information that allows reciprocal understanding of the process of oyster farming and the needs of growers… and of government regulatory and approvals processes.

This proposal addresses the identified needs, or recommendations 1, 2 and 4, by developing a monitoring synthesis portal, providing knowledge action networks for industry advocacy and information for regulatory frameworks.

This project addresses the significant need identified in the NARP to review agility of conservation governance and management. The likely effects of human-induced climate change on marine biodiversity raise questions about adaptive capacity of current governance and management systems and their ability to support the resilience of marine biota. Governance directly influences whether resilience is undermined, preserved or strengthened (McCook et al. 2007). As noted in a 2009 House of Representatives Standing Committee report: “Given the projected severe impacts on the coastal zone from climate change … and the urgent need for adaptation strategies and resilience building, any hesitation in addressing the issues concerning governance arrangements for the coastal zone could have severe consequences”.

Furthermore, the “cornerstone of future success is an adaptive governance structure in which ecosystem management understanding is operationalized in day-to-day activities” (Barnes & McFadden 2008, p. 391). These conclusions point to a need for coherent and adaptive systems of marine biodiversity governance, planning and management. By providing understandings and strategies for this ‘future success’, we will answer the following high and medium priority NARP questions:

1. How should conservation managers and planners adapt their practices to ameliorate climate change risks and enhance adaptation?

2. What intervention strategies addressing nature conservation outcomes will increase system resilience?

3. How will governance for the conservation of marine biodiversity need to change to adapt to climate change impacts?

4. What are the barriers to implementing adaptation and effective policy responses?

The project will engage with conservation planning instituted under the National Oceans Policy, examining institutional governance, decision-making processes and types of instruments being deployed. Our research also addresses priorities established in state strategies – in NSW for example, the discussion paper on a new biodiversity strategy identified a need to refine adaptation planning and integrated management of marine reserves.

Barramundi-associated industries are integral to the socio-economic health of tropical communities. This species supports a strong commercial and aquaculture fishery (~$80 million) and has high societal value being the major recreationally targeted fish in tropical waters (valued at ~$50 million) and is intrinsically important to indigenous culture. In QLD, barramundi is the fastest growing aquaculture sector (~ 21% p.a).

For barramundi there is a need to understand future climate patterns, their impact on distribution, carrying capacities and local abundances within the commercial/recreational fisheries, as well as the threats and opportunities for aquaculture. Current climate-orientated models are restricted to the QLD wild fishery and these predictions need to be extended to NT and WA, and the aquaculture landscape. In QLD, catch rates are linked to climate variability (Balston 2009a, 2009b) and the abundance/connectivity of climate sensitive wetland/mangrove habitats (Meynecke et al 2008). Pond-based aquaculture often already experiences summer water temperatures above those for optimum growth. However, no estimates on climate induced vulnerability of the whole fishery, or on current land and sea-based aquaculture (geophysical, physiological and nutritional impacts), are available, and the capacity for the aquaculture industry to selectively breed for tolerance to altered temperature regimes is unknown. These needs strongly align with those identified in the Marine Biodiversity Adaptation Plan as highest priority for the various sectors. The proposed R&D has strong stakeholder support from commercial, recreational and aquaculture stakeholders, as well as serving as a model for understanding altered climatic regimes in other tropical in-shore finfish.

Waters along Australia’s most densely populated east coast are warming at 3.8 times the global average rate, which is the most rapid change in the Southern Hemisphere. Ecosystems in this region are likely to be severely impacted by climate change and significant biodiversity change is expected. The rapid nature of these ecosystem changes will require science-based decisions about where, how and when to apply adaptive management interventions. Predictive models have high uncertainty when extrapolated into new conditions, as do CC scenario models. Unless protocols for tracking and predicting ecological changes are well informed, the remote nature of marine habitats, with associated difficulties and expense when mapping biodiversity assets, will inevitably translate to sub-optimal management interventions. Potential management interventions could include targeted spatial closures to protect vulnerable habitats, targeted translocation of key predators, direct manipulation of abundances of threatening and or threatened species.Our project will address these challenges using Australia’s east coast as it is the region of greatest change and hence under the most imminent threat. Using the longest available worldwide (18-yr) ecological reef data record of fishes, invertebrates and macro-algae in marine reserves, we will identify thresholds in ecological responses such as significant assemblage shifts, kelp decline and predator-prey relationships. These outputs combined with future climate scenarios will empower, state management and NRM agencies with mproved capacity to build ecosystem resilience through spatial management actions. The project addresses three NCCARP priority questions by: (3.1) identifying priority ecosystems and species most vulnerable in this globally significant warming hotspot; (2.1) identifying vulnerable inshore reef species of commercial fisheries importance (including southern rock lobster, abalone, and temperate wrasses) and priority locations for adaptive management; and (3.2) clarifying management benefits from one intervention strategy – MPAs – for enhancing resilience of temperate ecosystems.